Marvell (MRVL) stock closed the May 22 trading session at $196.33. The stock has rallied 131% year to date, by Sunday morning, May 24. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 index (SPY) is up about 9% in the same period.
The company has outpaced the S&P 500, thanks to its participation in the broader semiconductor rally driven by the AI boom.
Positive news driving Marvell’s stock includes:
- Strong fourth quarter (Q4) earnings report in March.
- Amazon’s extension of its partnership with Anthropic.
- Marvell’s acquisition of Polariton Technologies.
- Intel’s First Quarter earnings boost confidence in the semiconductor sector.
Marvell has set its Q1 fiscal year 2027 earnings report for May 27, and the expectations are high.
Citi and Stifel analysts shared their expectations for the Q1 report, following the recent updates from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
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Citi, Stifel raise Marvell stock price targets
Citi analyst Atif Malik updated his opinion on Marvell stock ahead of earnings, according to TipRanks.
Malik is one of the analysts with the best track records out there. His TipRanks profile shows he ranks 3rd out of 12,266 Wall Street analysts, with an 81% success rate and an average return of 48.0%.
He raised his earnings estimates, based on the belief that demand for Amazon’s Trainium 2 AI accelerators remains strong.
This is also why the aforementioned extension of partnership between Amazon and Anthropic was so important for Marvell stock.
As a reminder, here is Marvell’s guidance for Q1 2027:
- Net revenue of $2.4 billion +/- 5%
- GAAP gross margin in the range of 51.4% to 52.4%
- GAAP diluted net income per share of $0.31 +/- $0.05 per share
Source: Marvell
Malik reiterated a buy rating for Marvell stock and raised the price target to $215 from $118. His price target implies an upside of 9.5% from the last closing price.
Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg also updated his opinion on Marvell stock ahead of earnings, according to TipRanks. His TipRanks profile shows he ranks 27th out of 12,266 Wall Street analysts, with a 67% success rate and an average return of 42.2%.
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The analyst said he expects Marvell to exceed his Q1 revenue estimate of $2.4 billion. He believes that Marvell will provide an outlook for Q2 revenue above his current estimate of about $2.59 billion.
Svanberg reiterated a buy rating for Marvell stock and raised the price target to $210 from $140.
Bank of America and Goldman Sachs’ opinion on Marvell
In research notes shared with me from May 13th, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider updated their view on Marvell stock ahead of earnings.
Arya’s analyst team raised its total sales estimates for fiscal years 2028 and 2029 by 1% and 8%, respectively, to $15.17 billion and $20.02 billion. Analysts also raised their non-GAAP EPS estimates (excluding stock-based compensation) for the same periods by 3% and 15% to $5.60 and $7.80, respectively.
Arya reiterated a buy rating for Marvell stock and raised the price target to $200 from $125, based on a 30 multiple of his 2028 pro forma EPS estimate (including stock-based compensation).
Schneider’s team believes Marvell will increase its fiscal year 2027 and 2028 revenue growth guidance, driven by strength in AI data center sales.
The team raised its fiscal 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates to $11.12 billion and $15.35 billion, respectively. They also raised EPS estimates for the same periods to $3.27 and $5.0, respectively.
Schneider reiterated a neutral rating for Marvell stock and increased the target price to $125 from $100, based on a 28X price-to-earnings multiple applied to his normalized EPS estimate of $4.50.
Downside risks for Marvell:
- Slowdown in overall AI spending
- Share loss in custom compute
The majority of analysts rate Marvell as a buy, and Schneider is among the 4 of 27 analysts who rate it as a hold, while no one gives a sell rating, according to TipRanks.
It is worth noting that, rather than focusing on analysts’ views, we can listen to Marvell’s competitors. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) invested in Marvell, despite the fact that Marvell competes directly with them in the AI accelerator space through its custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chips.
Nvidia invested $2 billion in Marvell and entered into a partnership to strengthen its networking stack. AMD’s filing revealed a $6.5 million investment in Marvell. It can be inferred that both companies believe Marvell will be the leading company in silicon photonics, which are key to the next generation of data centers.
