When Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown’s contract was announced last year, social media went crazy. How could it be possible that a player who has never been considered the best player on his team be set to receive the largest contract in NBA history — an estimated $303 million.
A recent development is drastically changing the projection for Brown’s contract though. It’s still going to be huge — and it’s still going to be the biggest contract in NBA history to date — but it’s definitely not going to be as large as previously projected.
The Athletic’s Shams Charania broke the news on Tuesday, Jan. 30 that the NBA’s salary cap for the 2024-25 season was going to fall short of projections. The salary cap will be at $141 million, which is only about a 3.6% increase versus this year’s salary cap and is $1 million lower than previous projections.
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According to No Trade Clause’s Colin Maher, the dip isn’t that large given the NBA’s recent projections. But he acknowledges that the increase is also significantly lower than the maximum 10% increase that the cap has seen over the last three seasons.
“In the grand scheme of things, that $1 million isn’t much,” Maher told TheStreet. in an email. “However, I do understand that the projection does seem underwhelming when looking at recent history. I think the lowering of the projection is an indication that the NBA’s initial projection may not have been as modest as the majority of the public thought, and we won’t see another massive increase like we have over the past couple of years.”
Brown’s contract was projected to be over $303 million over five years under the assumption that the cap would increase steadily at the maximum 10% rate over the contract’s full period. But we know already that won’t be the case after year 1, which will have a ripple effect to his full number.
The NBA’s revenue is what drives the salary cap increase, and one of the biggest drivers is its media rights deal. The league’s last deal kicked in during the 2016-17 season, and next season will be the last one under the current deal that pays them about $2.7 billion per year.
The rate of increase of the NBA’s salary cap is slowing down after years of double digit growth.
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The next deal could potentially double or triple its previous deal starting the 2025-26 season, which could still lead to maximum 10% salary cap increases for those salaries. If that’s the case, Brown could still reap massive rewards for his contract.
Assuming the $141 million salary cap for next season, then 10% increases for the season after, Brown’s contract will go for $286.2 million, a substantial decrease from the $303 million it could have hit in a best case scenario.
Maher said this is a great reminder why initial projections spilled by the media upon a player’s signing “can’t be taken as gospel.”
He also reminded that even this new calculation of Brown’s contract is still a projection.
“Keep in mind, this new projection is yet another “projection of a projection,” Maher said. “We will know the real number when the actual formula from the CBA is used (and agreed upon by the league and NBPA) in late June. Although the decrease in the League’s projection indicates that we will not see a large cap increase in 2024-2025, the League’s projections are typically modest in comparison to the final number.”
Jaylen Brown’s salary projections
YearNew Projected Salary (in millions)Previous Projected Salary (in millions)Projected Salary Cap (in millions)
2024-25
$49.35
$52.37
$141.00
2025-26
$53.30
$56.56
$155.10
2026-27
$57.25
$60.75
$170.61
2027-28
$61.19
$64.94
$187.67
2028-29
65.14
$69.12
$206.44
Total
$286.23
$303.7
This case is just another reminder to sports fans that there is deeper, uncontrollable complexities to the final number of these massive contracts which can cause players to essential lose tens of millions of dollars.
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