Jerome Powell knows his job is not one that elicits big applause. Typically, the Federal Reserve chairman is a bearer of bad news, as in: Inflation is way too high, and the Fed is going to kill it.
But his Friday speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., produced lots of cheers on Wall Street for the Federal Reserve chairman — and everywhere else, too. Just as important, the speech set off a big fat stock rally that made a lot of lesser stocks suddenly look like stars.
The performances of the major indexes don’t tell the whole story. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones industrials were each up better than 1.1% each. The Dow and S&P ended the day just below their record closes in mid-July.
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But the real picture was bigger:
The Russell 2000 Index, derided for much of the year, jumped 3.2%. The NYSE Arca Airline Index, whose members struggle with oil-price gyrations and are regularly flattened by hostile economic winds, shot up 3.74%. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index jumped 3.73%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 ended the day higher, led by real estate, which was up 2% on the day. Interest rates fell as bond prices rallied. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.80%, just above its 52-week low of 3.67% on Aug. 5 but down from nearly 5% in October. Barchart.com data showed that 335 stocks hit 52-week highs on Friday, compared with just 53 stocks hitting 52-week lows.
And all because Jerome Powell told an assembly of central bankers from around the world — and a national TV audience — “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear.”
Cuts are coming soon
The rate cuts will probably be approved officially at the Fed’s September 17-18 meeting. The first cut probably will be a quarter of a percentage point.
The Fed’s key rate of 5.25% to 5.5% would come down to 5% to 5.25%. But Powell suggested strongly more rate cuts will come. The Fed, the chairman said, does not “seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
Powell’s speech has created an investable moment for a lot of investments.
Lower interest rates means the cost of capital to start a business, to build a new factory or buy a house will become less onerous. The rate on 30-year mortgages was under 6.5% on Friday.
But rates may head lower, and could generate more buying and selling. The key is for rates on 30-year mortgages to fall under 6%, real estate professionals said Friday. That’s a level they believe will cause more homeowners to put their properties on the market.
Real estate-related stocks and ETFs moved higher. Redfin (RDFN) , the online real estate broker, was up 18.9% to $11.08. Rival Zillow Group (Z) rose 5.2% to $56.35.
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If there’s more sales volume, both companies will benefit, though don’t expect Zillow to race back to its all-time closing high of $199.90 any time soon. That peak was reached during the Covid-19 pandemic when meme stocks took over the stock market.
A big winner: Housing
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) , which invests mostly in homebuilders and building materials suppliers like Home Depot (HD) , Lowe’s Companies (LOW) and Johnson Controls (JCI) , jumped up 4.3% on Friday. The ETF is up 24.6% this year.
That’s better than the Dow (up 9.3%), the S&P 500 (up 18.1%) and the Nasdaq (19.1%). Falling rates should help the bottom lines of all 35 components in the ETF.
Carnival Cruise, which operates the Carnival Liberty, paid $2 billion in interest on its debt in the last fiscal year.
Image source: Shutterstock
Investors bid up shares in two big cruise lines, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) and Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) . Norwegian jumped 7.76% to $17.50. Carnival rose 7.5% to $16.61.
The reason: Lower interest rates will cut the interest costs they pay on loans to buy ships and finance other activities.
In its 2023 fiscal year (which ended in November), Carnival said it paid $2.07 billion in interest. The company had $31.34 billion in debt coming due between 2024 and 2031.
So, reduced interest costs flows through to the bottom line and boosts earnings per share and stock prices.
Assuming inflation remains under control, which it was most years between 2000 and 2020, that’s what’s ahead for investors. For the record, the annual gain for the Consumer Price Index averaged 2.15% between 2001 and 2021, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Related: Fed Chairman Powell signals path of interest rate cuts
