This will be an unusual week for markets. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday, and there will zero economic reports on Tuesday.
And neither event has anything to do with the Presidential inauguration on Monday. Monday is also a national holiday, Martin Luther King Day.
Tuesday’s lack of economic reports is basically the luck of draw. U.S. markets will reopen with a full day of earnings reports.
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But it will be a week that will include the possibility of dramatic TV from the inauguration to the flurry of executive orders Donald Trump says he’ll sign authorizing the raids that will detain and deport undocumented people from the United States. For now, the focus will be deporting people facing criminal charges.
All these activities, in turn, could set off a big bout of market instability all week.
TikTok shuts down
There was waiting all week to see if TikTok would shut down over the weekend. The social media site was threatening to do so on Sunday unless, somehow, the President-elect intervened. The Supreme Court this past week upheld Congress’ right to ban TikTok in the United States for national security reasons.
There have been calls for TikTok to sell the U.S. business to American investors.
A bipartisan Congress had passed the legislation out of fear China would use personal data if TikTok users for intelligence gathering, and the site was supposed to shut down Sunday. China is not a direct owner of TikDok, but ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, is based in Beijing and is owned by Chinese investors. ByteDance CEO Zhang Yiming is reputed to be the richest man in China.
On Saturday, Trump was saying he was inclined to give TikTok and potential buyers 90 days to negotiate a deal.
But the Biden administration would not intervene to prevent the shutdown.
So, shortly before midnight eastern time before the shutdown deadline, TikTok became unavailable to many of its 170 million U.S. users.
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“Sorry, TikTok isn’t available right now,” a note on TikTok’s U.S. site read. “A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the U.S. Unfortunately, that means you can’t use TikTok for now.
“We are fortunate that President Trump has indicated that he will work with us on a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes office. Please stay tuned!”
If TikTok doesn’t come back on quickly, users will go elsewhere. The winners in that case might well be Instagram and YouTube, both owned by Meta Platforms (META) , which also owns Facebook.
A wild start for a new administration
The TikTok shutdown will color Donald Trump’s inauguration, which will take place at noon Monday in the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol building. It was moved inside because of cold-weather forecasts.
The audience will include the political establishment with a bevy of billionaires in the audience, including Elon Musk, Trump advisor and CEO of Tesla (TSLA) ; Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Shou Zi Chew, the CEO of TikTok.
The ceremony and Trump’s address afterward will be followed by executive orders that may include detaining and deporting thousands undocumented workers across the country.
News reports suggest the administration will start its deportation campaign with raids in such cities as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York. The effort will be vast, and Tom Homan, Trump’s immigration czar, is looking for facilities to house as many as 100,000 people at a time.
Stand-ins for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, U.S Army Master Sergeant Matthew Nall, left, and Melania Trump, Gunnery Sergeant Cecilia Kozlowski, right, laugh during an early Januaryrehearsal of the Trump inauguration at the U.S. Capitol. Because of cold weather, the event will be held indoors in the Capitol Rotunda.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
An unknown is whether the manpower is available for such a project and whether the money can be appropriated.
At the same time, the incoming administration wants to boost tariffs on countries ranging from China to Canada and Mexico, as well as the European Union. Announcement of these may come this coming week.
But there’s more. Reuters reported this past week that Germany’s U.S. ambassador has warned his government that the incoming administration wants to rob law enforcement and media of their independence and hand big tech companies “co-governing power.”
There is a counterpoint to all this: Donald Trump sees the stock market as his daily report card. And many analysts believe that, stocks will tumble if his administration comes across as too rash. So, they believe pronouncements may be more bluster than anything else.
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Stocks start January to the upside
All of this comes as stocks have risen modestly so far in January. Early losses at New Year’s have been replaced by enthusiastic buying. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 2.9% on this past week; but the index is up only 2% on the month.
The Nasdaq Composite added 2.5% for the week. So, it’s now up 1.7% for the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a 3.7% gain for the week, good enough to move the index up 2.2% on the month.
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The S&P 500 leaders so far this month are an interesting lot:
Constellation Energy (CEG) , up 41%.Troubled pharmacy giant Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA) , up 34.2%.Texas Pacific Land (TPL) , up 27.7%.Chip maker Micron Technology (MU) up 25.6%.Electricity generator Vistra Energy (VST) , up 24%.
Yes, the presence of energy-related stocks makes sense. The price of crude oil is up 8.6% so far in January, settling Friday at $77.39 per barrel. The national price of gasoline is up about 2.5% this month. A year ago, it was down about 0.5%.
The big S&P 500 losers in January include Edison International (EIX) , down 21%; vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) , down 18%; beverage giant Constellation Brands (STZ) , down 16.6% and Apple (AAPL) (yes, THAT Apple) down 8.2%.
Fourth quarter earnings season revs up
Starting Tuesday, the fourth-quarter earnings season starts its big parade. Here are some of the stocks reporting during the week ahead.
Tuesday:
Netflix (NFLX) . Revenue estimate: $10.1 billion, up 15%. Earnings estimate: $4.20 a share, up 99% from a year ago. Charles Schwab (SCHW) . Revenue est. $5.13 billion, up 15%. Earnings est.: $0.89, up 31%.3M (MMM) . Revenue est. $5.9 billion after spinoffs. Earnings est.: $1.55.D.R. Horton (DHI) . Revenue est.: $7.1 billion, down 7.8%. Earnings est.: $2.39, down 15.3%.
Wednesday:
Procter & Gamble (PG) . Revenue est.: $21.7 billion, up 1.1%. Earnings est.: $1.87, up 1.6%.Johnson &Johnson (JNJ) . Revenue est.: $22.5 billion, up 4.9%. Earnings est.: $2.04, down 10.9%.Abbott Laboratories (ABT) . Revenue est.: $11 billion, up 7.8%, Earnings est.: $1.34, up 12.6%.GE Vernova (GEV) . Revenue est.: $10.7 billion. Earnings est.: $2.47 Spun out of General Electric in 2024.
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Thursday:
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) . Revenue est.: $2.2 billion, up 14.1%, Earnings est.: $1.76, up 9.4%.General Electric (GE) . Revenue est.: $9.8 billion. Earnings est.: $1.05. Former GE Aviation.Texas Instruments (TXN) . Revenue est.: $4.1 billion, up 1.1%. Earnings est.: $1.37, down 8.1%.Union Pacific (UNP) . Revenue est.: $6.3 billion, up 1.6%, Earnings est.: $2.92, up 7.8%.
Friday:
American Express (AXP) . Revenue est.: $17.1 billion, up 8.5%. Earnings est.: $2.98, up 13.7%.Verizon Communications (VZ) . Revenue est.: $33.7 billion, down 4%. Earnings est.: $1.10, up 1.8%.NextEra Energy (NEE) . Revenue est.: $8 billion, up 16.4%, Earnings est.: $0.53, up 1.9%.HCA Healthcare (HCA) . Revenue est.: $18.2 billion, up 5.4%, Earnings est.: $6.16, up 4.41%.
Coming up the week of Jan. 27
If you want action, the week of Jan. 27 has it all: a Federal Reserve meeting on Jan. 27-28.
Earnings from six of the seven companies known as the Magnificent 7: Alphabet (GOOGL) on Jan. 28Microsoft (MSFT) , Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) on Jan. 29Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) on Jan. 30.
Nvidia (NVDA) doesn’t report until Feb. 26.
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