Recession fears are everywhere, but predicting the next downturn could be harder than expected. George Seay, chairman & founder of Annandale Capital, joined TheStreet to break down the key risks that could spark a recession—and why it may be further off than expected.
Related: Goldman Sachs CEO has 2-word response to recession talk
Full Video Transcript Below:
GEORGE SEAY: People were forecasting a recession in 2021 too, due to the pandemic and due to due to other factors. And it didn’t take place. We had so much stimulus coming into the market that it never happened. So I think the joke is that that 10 out of the last 12 recessions have been predicted, and there were only two. So take take it with a grain of salt. When people predict economic downturns and recessions and things of that sort, we’re going to get one eventually. But in the next 12 months, I think that’s highly uncertain right now. The economy is still pretty strong.
I think the Fed not cutting interest rates fast enough would be one. I think that that geopolitical uncertainty around the world would be two. And I think the president’s policies, which are not conducive to economic growth right now, whether it’s tariffs, whether it’s a a sharp reduction in governmental spending, all those kind of things, those reduce economic growth. So if you combine all those things together and uncertainties, you know, the whole black swan effect, things were not looking for that are significant that we don’t know really when it’s going to occur. You put all those things together. They could all cause a recession. But I would be really surprised if it happens in the next six months. It’s probably a 9 to 30 month event, something like that. When we’ll get a next recession. We’re really overdue for one though, so investors should be prepared for some hard times to come.
Watch More Videos:
This common budgeting mistake is actually costing you moneyTariffs likely won’t lead to higher prices, top economist saysHow automation is changing professional sportsDiversification isn’t what it used to be — How legends invest
