Summary United States: The Week Data Converged to Reveal a Clear Slowing in Activity Roughly four months since Liberation Day and after a run of broadly benign initial readings on the economy, data this week revealed broad and unambiguous signals that growth has slowed markedly in the first half of the year. Next week: Trade […]
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Recession is not our base case, but we believe the risk distribution has shifted decisively to the downside, as oil briefly broke above $110/barrel and remains volatile. The U.S. economy does not enter the current Read more…
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signaled that policymakers face a difficult decision at next week’s board meeting, warning that the recent surge in oil prices is adding new uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Speaking in Read more…