Billionaire Ray Dalio feels the debate between gold and bitcoin has a clear winner.
In his opinion, the precious metal remains the ultimate safe haven, while bitcoin mostly behaves like a risk asset rather than a true store of value.
Dalio, speaking on the All-In Podcast, argued that investors can’t treat the two popular assets as interchangeable hedges, CoinDesk reported.
He said gold still occupies a remarkably unique role in the global financial system that bitcoin cannot replicate at this point.
For perspective, per GoldPrice.org’s latest available closing price on March 7, gold traded at $5,170.48 per ounce, or about $166.23 per gram. As per the same source, silver was trading at $84.36 per ounce, or nearly $2.71 per gram.
At the time of writing, bitcoin traded at about $66,037.
However, over the past month, the trend has been remarkably volatile, with Reuters reporting Bitcoin dropping as low as $63,295.74 on Feb. 5, and then rebounding to $73,777 on March 4.
I last wrote about Dalio when his hedge fundBridgewater, from which he has now retired, made a conviction-driven addition to Nvidia, increasing its stake by nearly $253 million to $721 million at year-end.
The core idea behind that buy was that, despite the recent choppiness in the AI bellwether’s stock, Bridgewater still treated it as a critical pillar of the AI infrastructure buildout, along with other core tech bets, including Oracle and Micron.
On gold specifically, in my Feb. 5, 2026, piece, I covered Dalio’s blunt take on the shiny yellow metal from the World Governments Summit in Dubai.
Even after the wobbles at the time, Dalio laid out the case for gold being “the safest money.” He widened the lens further, warning that we are globally moving closer to a “capital war,” a time when capital and currency become critical battlegrounds.
“There is only one gold,” Dalio said.
That punchy take reflects Dalio’s broader worldview at the time, pointing to a global financial system entering a more volatile phase, as traditional hedges become increasingly important.
Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and gold: return comparison
- 1 month/30 days:
Bitcoin: -2.59%S&P 500: -2.77%
Gold: +4.18%
- 6 months:
Bitcoin: -39.28%S&P 500: +3.99%
Gold: +39.46%
- 1 year:
Bitcoin: -22.26%S&P 500: +17.45%
Gold: +74.34%
- 5 years:
Bitcoin: +32.40%S&P 500: +75.43%
Gold: +200.85%
- Longest dated period shown:
Bitcoin (10 years): +16,207.23%S&P 500 (10 years): +237.00%
Gold (20 years): +816.17%
- Source: Goldprice.org, Seeking Alpha
Dalio draws sharp line between gold and bitcoin
Dalio believes that although gold and bitcoin are often grouped together and treated as competing safe havens, the market treats them differently when things go south, Business Insider reported.
At the heart of the Bridgewater founder’s view is that gold’s strength lies in its deep institutional acceptance.
Central banks continue to hold thousands of tons of it in their reserve systems, and that longstanding position underscores the king metal’s credibility when markets get choppy.
More Gold:
- Gold, silver surge after record drop flashes technical signal
- Silver and gold tumble triggers major reset for mining stocks
- J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026
On the other hand, Bitcoin behaves more like a speculative asset that’s linked to the broader risk sentiment.
For Dalio, it’s about the sentiment that central banks are unlikely to accumulate bitcoin in the same way they do gold, limiting its ability to function as a bona fide reserve asset. So in times of pressure, he feels investors will likely look to sell bitcoin along with other risk assets while rotating into traditional hedges.
That’s why the shiny yellow metal still occupies the top spot in diversified portfolios.
“One should have between five and 15% of their portfolio in gold,” he said, describing the metal as a powerful hedge that has performed well over the years during periods of financial duress.
Central banks are still buying gold
- Central bank buying remained robust in 2025. The sector scooped up a net 863.3 tonnes of gold last year, per the World Gold Council. Though that figure trailed the 1,092.4 tonnes added in 2024, it was still far above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.
- The pace picked up in the back half of the year. World Gold Council data showed central banks buying a net 230 tonnes in Q4 2025, up substantially from 218 tonnes in Q3.
- The National Bank of Poland was the largest buyer in 2025, adding 102 tonnes. Kazakhstan added 57 tonnes, Brazil added 43 tonnes, and Turkey added 27 tonnes.
- Moreover, that trend didn’t disappear in 2026. The World Gold Council said central banks were net buyers in January, adding 5 tonnes overall. Moreover, according to the group’s 2025 reserve survey, 95% of respondents said they were expecting global central-bank gold reserves to jump over the next 12 months.
Wall Street’s targets on gold
- Goldman Sachs: $5,400 by end-2026
- UBS: $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026, with $5,900 by the end of 2026
- JPMorgan: $6,300 by end-2026
- Bank of America: $6,000 over the next 12 months
- Deutsche Bank: $6,000 in 2026
- Societe Generale: $6,000 by end-2026
Source: Reuters
