There’s so much drama taking place in the world. Last week alone, investors watched the U.S.-Iran war escalate, sending energy prices sharply higher.
The Strait of Hormuz was closed after massive airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. About one-third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC.
Oil prices had jumped quickly to above $119 per barrel but have fallen from their prior high. As of writing, Brent fell to $90.37 per barrel on March 10, down 8.7% from the previous day.
DeCarley Trading’s commodity trader Carley Garner warned last week that such oil spike “isn’t bullish for anything.”
“I’ve only seen oil move this far, this fast on three other occasions: 2008, 2011, and 2022,” Garner wrote on X. “What came next wasn’t pretty for most assets. When an integral commodity like oil spikes like this, things start to break.”
Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Investment Management, thinks differently.
Related: JPMorgan’s shocking Iran forecast could change oil’s next move
Wood often views sharp volatilities as opportunities. Sometimes she’s right. Last year, the flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) gained 35.49%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s return of 17.88% in the same period.
Cathie Wood says oil prices could nearly halve over the next decade
In the latest “In The Know With Cathie Wood” show on March 7, Wood said the world is seeing a “coiled spring” moment and predicted oil prices could sharply decline as technological change reshapes transportation and energy demand.
Wood used “coiled spring” to describe two forces building simultaneously. One is demographic and political pressure in parts of the Middle East, particularly Iran, where younger populations are pushing for change. The other is the tech innovation.
“This world of technology and innovation itself is also a coiled spring,” she said. “Slowly, then all at once — and we are having a lot of ‘all at once’ moments now.”
Despite the near-term spike in oil prices, Wood believes the long-term trend points lower.
“Electric vehicles will be less expensive,” Wood said, arguing that autonomous mobility and EV adoption could significantly reduce oil demand over time. “That means that the oil price will probably come down.”
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Wood suggested crude oil could fall below $50 per barrel within five to ten years, and potentially even lower as electric transportation and renewable energy scale globally.
Global EV registrations, a proxy for sales, reached 20.7 million vehicles in 2025, Reuters reported.
The Middle East is preparing for a non-oil economy
Wood said oil-producing countries are already preparing for the shift to a non-oil economy. Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have poured billions into technology investments and diversification programs as they attempt to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.
“The Middle East, which has the largest oil reserves, knows this,” Wood said, referring to the potential oil price drop. “So they’ve been diversifying into really technology-based disruptive innovation.”
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We’ve seen programs such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy, which is aimed at expanding the non-oil economy, including artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and tourism.
On Iran’s future and its broader impact on the world, Wood said the world may not change dramatically.
“I don’t think, if this regime somehow manages to hold on, that the world will be that much different,” Wood said.
Do you agree or disagree with Cathie Wood’s views? Let us know your comments below!
Related: Cathie Wood buys $27 million of battered tech stock
