In the past, most weight loss fads mixed moderation, exercise, and special diets. Many of the foods involved actually cost more than traditional groceries.
A Slim-Fast shake, for example, was more expensive than a couple of eggs and some toast, or a bowl of cereal.
The Atkins diet led to changes in how people shopped, but it arguably pushed them toward pricier products.
“At its peak, during 2003-2004, some 30 million Americans were following the Atkins diet, and 20% of shoppers said they had started buying certain products specifically because they were low-carbohydrate,” according to the Wharton School of Business.
You can make similar arguments about the Keto diet, which led to people buying more meat, and the gluten-free diet, which pushes consumers to pricier items that don’t contain wheat.
Now, however, the use of GLP-1 drugs to lose weight has led to people buying and eating less food. That’s a growing problem for U.S. grocery sales, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
GLP-1 drugs have grown in popularity
Technically, GLP-1 drugs are not FDA-approved for use in weight loss.
“GLP-1 is a naturally occurring hormone. Medications like semaglutide (common brand names include Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus) mimic its effects to help people manage type 2 diabetes, and in some cases, lose weight,” according to CVS.
And, while these drugs are widely being prescribed for weight loss, the FDA does have an official warning about off-label uses.
“FDA is aware that some patients and health care professionals may look to unapproved versions of GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists) drugs, including semaglutide and tirzepatide, as an option for weight loss. This can be risky for patients, as unapproved versions do not undergo the FDA’s review for safety, effectiveness, and quality before they are marketed,” the FDA shared.
Those warnings have not stopped doctors from prescribing GLP-1 drugs for weight loss.
“The number of Americans taking weight loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, and Mounjaro more than doubled to 12.4% compared with 5.8% in February 2024, when Gallup first measured it,” according to a 2024 Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index.
That’s a significant number of Americans, and it could signal softer grocery demand across major chains, including Costco, Walmart, and Kroger.
The GLP-1 craze has also taken a bite out of parts of the food industry.
An estimated $6.5 billion in U.S. grocery sales has been lost due to reduced snacking among GLP-1 users, according to the National Retail Federation, citing Big Chalk Analytics.
Retailers are making GLP-1 changes
Grocery store brands, however, are adapting.
“Meanwhile, CPG brands like Nestlé, Conagra, Danone, and Nissin are quickly bringing GLP1-friendly items to market. And retailers are leaning into the protein craze prompted by GLP-1 users,” the NRF reported.
As a brand that primarily sells food, Kroger faces more risk than Costco and Walmart, and the chain has made changes as well.
“Kroger launched a protein-focused extension of its private label brand Simple Truth that now includes over 80 high-protein meals and snacks,” added the NRF.
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Consumers have shifted some spending away from food.
“In apparel, retailers are adjusting inventory in effort to do a better job of size assortments, according to the NRF.
Apparel companies are shifting to stock more smaller sizes and slightly fewer larger sizes, due to surging demand for smaller sizes among GLP-1 users, Modern Retail reported.
“And there’s been an uptick in ‘revenge shopping,’ which in this case suggests that shoppers are indulging in ‘rewards’ by purchasing new clothing pieces, the retail news website shared.
What’s it like being on a GLP-1?
Having been taking a GLP-1, tirzepatide, for about five months, I can share how it impacted me, as the experience is not the same for everyone.
Taking the drug, which I administer as a shot once a week, has lessened my appetite, but not my desire to eat. For the first few months, it did not really change my grocery shopping habits because my brain still wanted to eat like it used to.
Over time, and having thrown away a lot of leftovers, I have been purchasing less food and cooking smaller meals. At restaurants, I used to routinely order an appetizer and a meal, and now I often get one or the other.
For me, the weight loss has been slow and steady, while I have seen friends for whom the weight came off much faster.
I do spend less on food at grocery stores and restaurants, but not always, since I’m not willing to order more expensive menu items when dining out if that’s the only thing I’m going to eat.
I’m not alone in those behaviors, according to recent research from Morgan Stanley reported on by CNBC.
“Most people taking those medications, called GLP-1s, say they are spending less on eating out at restaurants and ordering takeout, according to a Morgan Stanley survey…A smaller share of those surveyed say they are tightening their purse strings in the grocery store,” the study showed.
“There is growing evidence that the drugs have a meaningful impact on consumer behavior and spending on groceries and restaurants,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in the survey. “All of these dynamics suggest GLP-1 drugs’ impact across consumer sectors is set to increase as drug uptake grows and the drugs reshape behavior among a demographic group that represents a disproportionate share of calorie consumption.”
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