The 2026 housing market has been unpredictable. It feels a bit like riding a shoddily maintained roller coaster, if I’m being honest.
Mortgage rates spiked a couple of months ago — then we finally experienced a little relief once tensions in the Middle East settled down. But now rates are back up as the situation between the U.S. and Iran worsens.
Home price growth is much calmer than a few years ago. However, prices are still inflated due to values spiking during the COVID-19 pandemic.
As a real estate journalist, I’ve witnessed the ups and downs of the 2026 housing market. Sometimes things don’t feel so bad. Other times, they seem horrible.
Real estate technology company Redfin released housing market data for the four-week period of June 8-July 5. These numbers provide a glance into what’s going on in the real estate market, from housing prices to inventory to sales trends.
Truthfully, the Redfin Weekly Housing Market Tracker numbers did not make me feel like we are getting off the roller coaster anytime soon. This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad time to buy a house, though.
Home prices keep ticking up
The median home sale price is $408,808. That is actually down a smidge from the previous four-week period, June 1-28, when the median price was $409,388.
However, it’s a year-over-year increase of 2.2%.
“In most of the country, it’s still a buyer’s market, meaning there are more homes for sale than people looking to buy a home,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, told TheStreet. “While that puts buyers who can afford a home in the driver’s seat, it doesn’t change that overall housing costs –– including home prices –– are higher than many would-be buyers can afford to pay.”
Related: Americans must face long-term reality after mortgage rate news
Mortgage rates have held steady at around 6.5% for two months. Due to geopolitical tensions and inflation, rates are unlikely to decrease significantly in the near future.
Fairweather said that since there isn’t much reason to hold out for lower mortgage rates, Americans who can afford to buy or need to move have no reason to wait on the sidelines anymore.
“Regardless, all buyers should consider their total monthly payments when making the decision to buy a home –– including their mortgage rate, yes, but also closing costs and other associated monthly payments like HOA fees, insurance costs, and utilities,” she said.
Pending home sales rise — but this trend might not continue
Week-over-week pending home sales increased by 1.3% during the four-week period ending July 5.
A Redfin report partly attributes this uptick to lower mortgage rates. Interest rates inched down the week of July 2, largely due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The lower rates resulted in the lowest median monthly housing payment in six weeks: $2,598.
Annual pending sales also increased. There were 337,402 pending sales in this four-week period, up 6.3% year over year. That’s the largest incline since the period ending in Mid-may.
More Housing Market:
- Zillow sees change in housing market, home values
- New home-selling strategy poses threat to buyers
- Goldman Sachs issues major prediction for U.S. housing market
However, the issue once again goes back to interest rates. Freddie Mac mortgage rates have bounced back up since July 5, and they will probably stay relatively high.
Redfin mostly attributes the pending sales increase to the previous dip in mortgage rates. It’s possible that pending home sales data will weaken in upcoming weekly reports from Redfin.
What Redfin’s data means for buying a house right now
- Home sale prices will keep increasing. It’s a general rule of thumb that property values grow over time. Besides stagnant mortgage rates, this is another reason I agree with Fairweather’s take that people don’t necessarily need to wait to buy homes. The longer you wait, the more expensive housing will become — meanwhile, you could have spent that time building equity in a home.
- Home price growth depends on where you live.Redfin broke down the year-over-year median home price change in the 50 largest U.S. metro areas. The cities with the strongest price growth were Pittsburgh (9.1%), San Francisco (8.2%), and West Palm Beach, Florida (7.7%). Those with the lowest were San Jose (-5.6%), Seattle (-4.5), and Miami (-1.3).
- Future pending home sales data is unpredictable. I mentioned that future pending home sales data could decrease now that we expect mortgage rates to stay around 6.5% for a while. However, plenty of homebuyers are tired of waiting on the sidelines and entering the housing market anyway, according to the National Association of Realtors. Buyers are now receiving messaging that mortgage rates are stuck, so maybe more will actually stop holding out and start buying houses. We’ll see.
- We are still a buyer’s market. Fairweather said it herself: America is a buyer’s market. This is a stark difference from a few years ago, when we were a strong seller’s market and buyers were forced to enter bidding wars, offer over listing price, and waive contingencies if they wanted a house. Overall, it is actually a much calmer time to buy now than earlier in the 2020s.
Related: Dave Ramsey, Vanguard warn Americans on housing costs
