Recently, I wrote about Redfin data showing that pending home sales were down for the first time in a month.
Well, the situation has gotten worse. (Or better, depending on your perspective.)
The previous week, weekly pending home sales had decreased by 2.2%. A new Redfin report revealed that week-over-week pending home sales fell again, this time by 1.3% for the four-week period ending July 19.
Not only is this the second straight week of declining pending sales, but it’s also the lowest level in three months.
The term “pending home sale” means the seller has accepted the buyer’s offer and the listing is no longer active. However, the deal is “pending” because the parties haven’t closed yet.
Redfin pointed to several reasons fewer Americans are making offers: rising mortgage rates, economic uncertainty due to the war in Iran, and higher oil prices.
Lower pending sales can be tough for the housing market overall. However, this trend can benefit those who still want to buy a house.
“Falling pending home sales could be a good sign for buyers, as they may be able to gain more favorable terms on a purchase from sellers with fewer options,” Michael C. Weiner, a real estate agent at Coldwell Banker Warburg, told TheStreet.
Fewer pending home sales give homebuyers more power
How does a dip in pending home sales translate to better deals for homebuyers?
“That could take the form of a lower price, more flexibility on closing timing, or increased seller funding of repairs,” said Weiner.
When there are fewer buyers in the housing market, there is less competition. This means homebuyers have more power than sellers — it’s a buyer’s market.
You may be able to negotiate any of the terms Weiner listed with the seller when making an offer or counteroffer. And when it comes to how much you’ll pay for the home, you might not even need to wait until the negotiation process to see a lower price.
If a home stays on the market for too long and the seller wants to appeal to more buyers, they may cut the listing price. The share of property listings with a price cut was 18.8% in June, according to Realtor.com data.
Related: Why homebuyers win despite latest mortgage rate news
Although mortgage rates are relatively high, homebuyers can snag savings in other areas in this sort of real estate market. That can help lessen the blow of mortgage rates over 6.5%.
Don’t get too confident, though. You and your real estate agent still need to be strategic about which home you buy and how to craft a strategic offer.
“Buyers should remember that desirable, move-in ready homes can still be competitive because many people don’t want to take on renovation costs while mortgage payments are high,” said Redfin Premier agent Vanessa Leimback. “That’s why the biggest bargains are often on fixer-uppers.”
Redfin and experts note that you might not find your dream home
The decrease in pending home sales brings plenty of advantages for buyers. But it also introduces unique challenges.
“On the flip side, it also might mean that there are simply not a lot of good choices on the market, and that they may not be able to find what they’re looking for,” Weiner told TheStreet.
The Redfin study revealed that week-over-week new listings have increased by just 0.4%. This puts new listings at their second-lowest level of 2026.
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“The catch is that new listings are also hovering near their yearly low, so buyers may have more leverage without much more choice,” John Walkup, co-founder at UrbanDigs, told TheStreet.
“In practical terms, buyers may be able to secure modest discounts or concessions, while sellers need to stay closely aligned with their direct competition,” he continued.
With less inventory, you may struggle to find your dream home. As Leimback mentioned, a fixer-upper could be your key to becoming a homeowner sooner rather than later. Then, you could put any savings from the home purchase toward maintenance projects.
What’s next for pending home sales?
Now that we’ve covered the pros and cons of declining pending home sales for buyers, you might be wondering where this specific housing market trend is headed.
Of course, none of us have a crystal ball to tell us what mortgage rates, pending home sales, or any aspect of the market will do. But after years of reporting on the real estate market, I’ve picked up on a few clues that provide insight.
I suspect that next week’s Redfin data will show that pending sales are down again.
Why? Because the company cited the Freddie Mac mortgage rate of 6.55%, which was an 11-month high, as one reason behind the lower pending sales numbers.
But that was the average 30-year mortgage rate the week ending July 19. Freddie Mac released its updated average rate on July 23 — it increased by 0.03% to 6.58%. This is its highest point in 2026.
Higher rates may mean even more would-be homebuyers decide to take a step back.
There also aren’t any signs of the U.S.-Iran conflict dying down anytime soon. This political and economic uncertainty could keep Americans from feeling confident about making such a huge purchase.
It’s possible that mortgage rates will inch down the following week. But the war in Iran has a potentially longer-lasting impact on the housing market.
Related: Homeowners face selling decision after housing market shift
