More than 900 million SpaceX shares became eligible for sale on August 6. At midday prices, that tranche was worth around $101 billion. Investors had spent weeks bracing for the unlock, watching the stock slide in anticipation. The selloff they feared never came.
SpaceX (SPCX) rose nearly 3% on August 6, the day of the unlock. The stock had already fallen 13.6% on August 5, suggesting much of the selling pressure came before the eligible shares were actually released. What helped steady the stock was a note from one of the banks that took SpaceX public in June, Benzinga reported.
Why Morgan Stanley just made a bold call on SpaceX stock
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas published his note on August 6, the same day the lockup expired. He did not warn investors to stay away. He told them the unlock was a chance to get in. He called SpaceX a “potential generational compounder that converts energy into a networked/swarming intelligence at scale.”
That is not the language of a cautious analyst. That is a very big call on a very young public company.
Related: SpaceX to challenge Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile with new plans
Jonas carries an Overweight rating and a $300 mid-2027 price target. At the time of writing the note, that target implied the stock could nearly triple from where it was trading.
He argued SpaceX has “the pieces to build an industry-leading intelligence per watt, per dollar, per second.” More than half of his $300 target is attributed to SpaceX’s AI business. The rest is split between launch services and satellite connectivity.
It is worth noting that Morgan Stanley was one of the banks that helped take SpaceX public in June. Investors should weigh the bullish note with that relationship in mind.
The $101 billion unlock that didn’t break SpaceX stock
Up to 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale on August 6. That more than doubled the company’s tradable float. SpaceX had traded below its $135 IPO price before the event, which meant some insiders were sitting on losses. Selling into a down market is common when lockups expire.
The expected wave of selling did not show up, at least not on the unlock date itself. Becoming eligible to sell is not the same as selling. There is no evidence that most of the 911.5 million shares actually changed hands on August 6.
The August 6 event was not the end of the lockup schedule. Up to 455.8 million additional shares remained restricted because the stock was below the price threshold required for their release. Additional unlock windows are scheduled later in August and through the end of the year. Shares held by Elon Musk and certain other investors remain restricted until June 2027.
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How Adam Jonas gets to a $300 SpaceX stock price target
Jonas’s bull case requires SpaceX’s AI spending to produce durable revenue and cash flow. That is a large assumption.
The three SpaceX businesses behind the $300 price target:
- Launch services: Reusable rockets lower the cost of deploying satellites and other equipment. SpaceX uses this capability to build and maintain its own networks faster and more cheaply than competitors can.
- Starlink: Satellite broadband and direct-to-device connectivity. Starlink generates recurring revenue and supplies the communications layer for SpaceX’s future products, including its mobile wireless ambitions.
- AI infrastructure: Jonas sees SpaceX developing computing capacity and energy infrastructure to compete in the AI market. This includes terrestrial data centers, orbital computing, and systems connecting satellites, vehicles, and machines. Veteran analyst Bob O’Donnell has separately called SpaceX an emerging “neocloud,” leasing computing capacity to outside AI developers.
Jonas’s bull case requires SpaceX’s AI spending to produce durable revenue and cash flow. That is a large assumption. Prediction market traders give xAI, Elon Musk’s separate AI company, roughly a 3% chance of having the best AI model by year-end, compared with 67% for Anthropic and 11% for OpenAI, according to Benzinga. That puts pressure on SpaceX’s infrastructure role as the more realistic AI play.
What SPCX investors need to know about upcoming SpaceX lockups
The August 6 expiration did not eliminate future supply risk. Several more unlock windows are ahead. Each one could create volatility, especially if insiders decide to reduce positions or the company’s financial results come in below the expectations built into a $300 price target.
SpaceX’s stock has already traded below its IPO price. That tells you public market investors are more focused on near-term earnings and cash flow than private market investors were. The company is burning significant capital on satellite launches, AI infrastructure, and the wireless buildout outlined on its first earnings call.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 target depends on SpaceX executing across all three businesses at once. Higher-than-expected capital spending, satellite or rocket delays, slower Starlink growth, or weak demand for AI infrastructure could all push the target out of reach. Jonas’s note is bullish. The lockup schedule means investors will have more opportunities to test whether the market agrees.
Related: Jim Cramer sees the writing on the wall for SpaceX investors
