Michael Burry made his name betting against a market everyone else trusted. This time, the market pushed back harder than usual, and the damage showed up across nearly every corner of his bearish portfolio.
August turned into one of the roughest months yet for his bearish AI positions, even as he kept adding to them rather than backing away. The stretch offers a real test of how long conviction can hold up against a genuinely strong earnings season.
Michael Burry’s bets against Palantir Nvidia and Micron backfired in August
Most of the stocks Burry was bearish on advanced during August, led by sharp gains in Palantir, Nvidia, and Micron. The month highlighted a real risk for AI skeptics: valuation concerns can look extreme for a long time before momentum and earnings growth actually break. August gave little evidence that a break is imminent.
Palantir was by far the biggest problem. The stock surged 51.4% in August, even as Burry maintained out-of-the-money put options with a $100 strike expiring December 2026 and a $50 strike expiring June 2027, according to Yahoo Finance.
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Nvidia and Micron added their own pressure. Nvidia rose roughly 8% in August while Burry held bearish put positions alongside higher-strike December calls meant to offer some protection around earnings. Micron gained 13.3% even after Burry increased his short exposure, arguing the memory maker’s rally reflected speculation more than fundamentals, according to Stocktwits.
Other names in Burry’s bearish basket told a similar story. Oracle climbed 16.2%, CoreWeave gained 17.4%, Tesla advanced 12.1%, and Nebius rose 9.9% over the month, leaving Applied Materials and Caterpillar as the only two of his tracked short targets that actually declined, down 9% and 1.8% respectively, Stocktwits noted.
Palantir was the biggest problem in Burry’s portfolio
Palantir’s second-quarter results, reported August 3, gave the stock’s rally real fundamental backing. Revenue reached $1.935 billion, up 93% year over year, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 149% to $764 million and adjusted free cash flow of $1.22 billion, TheStreet reported.
Burry has not backed off his long-term view despite those numbers. He has said Palantir is worth under $1 per share on a long-term basis, a stark contrast to a stock trading near $175 with a market capitalization around $420 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio above 137, according to Stock Analysis.
Burry’s argument is not that Palantir’s business is weak. He has acknowledged the company’s Rule of 40 score, a metric combining revenue growth and profit margin, reached 155% last quarter, far above the benchmark for AI infrastructure companies. His case instead is that the current price already assumes near-perfect execution indefinitely, leaving little room for anything to go wrong, as TheStreet reported.
In early August, Burry widened the comparison further. He likened the current AI buildout to 2005, one year before the housing market began to crack. He also disclosed fresh shorts against Oracle and Nebius around that same period, broadening his bet beyond the three most talked-about names.
Why Michael Burry still isn’t backing down on his shorts
Burry’s positioning has grown rather than shrunk as the trades have moved against him. His short positions in the iShares Semiconductor ETF, Micron, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials remained largely intact up until early August. He has said publicly that all of those positions stayed profitable except his bet against Nvidia, according to TheStreet.
Micron’s own business results complicate Burry’s timing argument. Chief business officer Sumit Sadana said on the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings call that customer demand for memory chips remains “well above our ability to supply” across nearly every product category through 2028, a comment that cuts directly against the idea that current demand reflects speculation rather than end-customer need, according to Insider Monkey.
Burry has also pointed to a more technical concern about how AI infrastructure spending gets accounted for. He has argued that hyperscalers may be extending the useful life of Nvidia chips in ways that understate depreciation and inflate reported earnings, estimating the resulting shortfall could reach roughly $176 billion between 2026 and 2028.
Burry’s call options on Nvidia, bought as a hedge rather than a bullish trade, at least partly cushion the impact from Nvidia’s own August strength. “I am not playing for gains here,” Burry wrote of that trade as the stock jumped roughly 8% following its August earnings report.
What investors should watch next after Burry’s August losses
August illustrates the gap between identifying valuation risk and successfully timing it. Burry may ultimately be right that parts of the AI trade are overpriced, but Palantir, Nvidia, and Micron all continue to benefit from genuinely strong earnings and sentiment momentum that has outpaced his bearish thesis so far.
Burry’s short positions are not a signal by themselves. The signal is the earnings data. Right now that data says AI demand is real and growing. If a major hyperscaler comes out next quarter with weak guidance or a spending cut, that changes everything. Nothing like that has shown up yet.
Burry has been here before. He was early on the housing trade too, and early felt a lot like wrong for a long time. August is one data point. The numbers that matter are the ones that come out of the next round of earnings calls. Until the demand story cracks there, the market is not listening.
Related: Michael Burry just sent a fresh signal to stock market investors
