SanDisk (SNDK) stock has delivered the kind of rally that makes Wall Street cautious. In a note shared with me, Rosenblatt Securities is taking the opposite view, initiating coverage with a Buy rating and arguing that upside could still be ahead, while slapping an eye-popping price target.
That striking call comes after SanDisk has killed it in the stock market this year, evolving from a consumer-storage brand into one of the market’s hottest artificial-intelligence infrastructure plays.
That said, SanDisk has backed it up with operational momentum, soaring past top-and-bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters with aplomb. Its results have been supercharged by NAND shortages, higher pricing, and data-center demand, reshaping profitability.
But Rosenblatt’s thesis goes beyond another strong memory cycle. Analyst Kevin Cassidy believes AI is changing how customers value NAND storage and how SanDisk can monetize it. His forecast suggests the market may still be underestimating that transformation.
Rosenblatt sees a 36% upside for SanDisk stock
Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy initiated coverage of SanDisk stock with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target. Based on its recent price of $1,766.64, the forecast implies approximately 35.9% upside, even after one of the market’s most extraordinary runs.
For perspective, Cassidy is a 5-star tech analyst. TipRanks currently ranks Cassidy No. 58 among 12,521 Wall Street analysts, with his recommendations producing a 59.2% success rate and an average one-year return of 39%. Also, his best tracked recommendation was Western Digital, which returned 800%.
Cassidy’s thesis is not simply that AI requires more storage. He believes new computing platforms are turning NAND into a “system-critical component of AI infrastructure,” while SanDisk’s technology supports a “favorable bit-cost curve.” In other words, AI could improve both demand and the economics of supplying it.
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The first shift is economic.
NAND was traditionally treated as an interchangeable commodity, with buyers prioritizing the lowest price. AI infrastructure builders care more about capacity, speed, endurance, energy consumption, and guaranteed availability. That can reward technologically stronger suppliers with better pricing and stickier customer relationships.
The second advantage is architectural.
SanDisk develops BiCS8 and BiCS10 NAND with manufacturing partner Kioxia. BiCS10 delivers 59% greater bit density and 33% faster interface speeds than BiCS8, while reducing input and output power consumption by 10% and 34%, respectively.
Put simply, Sandisk can potentially store more information in the same physical space, move it faster and consume less electricity. Across hyperscale data centers, those improvements can translate into substantial savings.
The third shift is contractual.
SanDisk’s multiyear New Business Model agreements provide minimum commitments, pricing protection and greater production visibility. Rosenblatt estimates these arrangements could cover roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 output.
That could raise SanDisk’s earnings floor and soften NAND’s notorious boom-and-bust cycle. Cassidy is betting those changes endure. It does not eliminate the risk that new supply, weaker AI spending or aggressive competitor pricing eventually pressures margins.
AI storage boom sent SanDisk stock into overdrive
SanDisk stock has become one of 2026’s biggest stock market stories, surging 696% year to date and 1,749% over 12 months as per Seeking Alpha data.
The rally extends beyond simple AI branding, which many companies have clung to. A NAND capacity shortage, rising prices, and data center demand have transformed the company’s earnings power.
Nvidia and AMD GPUs provide the computing brain, while SanDisk supplies the flash storage that keeps datasets, model weights, and user context within reach. Moreover, it’s developing HBF technology that targets HBM-like read bandwidth with eight to 16 times the capacity, although commercial validation remains ahead.
SanDisk’s latest earnings showed why investors care.
Fiscal Q4 sales reached $8.97 billion, up 51% sequentially and 372% year over year. Adjusted EPS hit $39.25, while gross margin expanded from 26.4% to an extraordinary 84.6%. Data-center revenue more than doubled sequentially to $2.98 billion, helping full-year revenue rise 175% to $20.25 billion.
Moreover, it’s important to note that pricing delivered roughly two-thirds of sequential growth, with higher volumes supplying the rest. SanDisk also guided for $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion in Q1 sales and expanded its remaining repurchase authorization to $15.5 billion.
Still, the post-earnings decline exposed the risk. After such a historic run, even exceptional results can disappoint when expectations have risen faster than the business itself.
SanDisk stock looks cheap, but earnings must hold
SanDisk’s valuation looks restrained for a stock that has climbed 644% this year. Seeking Alpha data show consensus fiscal 2027 EPS of $213.90, up 201.78%, alongside $48.95 billion in revenue. At $1,766, the shares trade at 8.26 times those earnings.
The multiple falls to 6.70 times the fiscal 2028 EPS estimates of $263.49. Rosenblatt’s $2,400 target would value SanDisk at roughly 11.2 times fiscal 2027 earnings and 9.1 times fiscal 2028 estimates, excessive if those forecasts materialize.
Current estimates assume AI demand, NAND shortages, elevated pricing, and extraordinary margins remain durable. Memory cycles rarely stay this favorable indefinitely, while new capacity or weaker hyperscaler spending could trigger estimate cuts.
Therefore, SanDisk stock can look inexpensive and still carry substantial downside risk. Investors should focus less on the headline P/E and more on NAND pricing, data-center growth, contractual revenue coverage, and gross-margin durability.
