Most people don’t think much about which delivery app they open. You pick the one with the lower fee, the faster driver, or the promo code that landed in your inbox.
That habit is exactly what makes delivery such a tough business. Loyalty lasts only as long as the next discount.
I’m clearly not alone in relying on Uber for both rides and meals. Uber Technologies (UBER) handled 3.9 billion trips in the second quarter, with gross bookings up 24% to $58 billion, according to its earnings release.
“Uber’s platform advantage continues to compound: record consumers and engagement, and profitable growth across our business,” said CEO Dara Khosrowshahi in the release.
However, a subtle shift has emerged in how Americans use the delivery side of that platform.
According to a Bank of America research report seen by TheStreet, Uber Eats is losing daily users in the U.S. while DoorDash (DASH) keeps adding them.
The note lands one week before Uber reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4, according to the bank.
The app data shows Uber Eats slipping in the U.S.
The numbers come from Sensor Tower data cited in the report. U.S. daily active users of the Uber Eats app averaged 2.8 million in the third quarter, down 4% from a year earlier.
DoorDash averaged 9.1 million U.S. daily users over the same stretch, up 8%. Globally, Uber Eats was flat at 11 million, while DoorDash grew 11% to 10 million.
More Food Delivery:
- DoorDash, Uber Eats have a new rival, offering lower menu prices
- Food Lion, Stop & Shop online ordering stays down for a 3rd day
- DoorDash wants customers to stop using its app to order food
There is a caveat. Customers “can also order Delivery through the main Uber app,” the analysts noted, so the Eats app alone may understate demand.
The ride-hailing side looks steadier. Uber’s U.S. rider app averaged 4.8 million daily users, up 1%, while Lyft (LYFT) fell 5% to 2.7 million.
Here is how the third-quarter app data stacks up, according to Sensor Tower figures in the note:
- Uber Eats, U.S.: 2.8 million daily users, down 4%
- DoorDash, U.S.: 9.1 million daily users, up 8%
- Uber rider app, U.S.: 4.8 million daily users, up 1%
- Waymo One, U.S.: 148,000 daily users, up 65%
- Uber driver app, U.S.: 1.9 million daily users, down 2%
Investors have noticed the pressure. Uber shares hit a 52-week low of $65.41 on Oct. 28 and are down about 31% over the past year, Investing.com reported.
Analyst Justin Post laid out the case in a note titled “3Q Preview: Expect in-line qtr and outlook, AV supply & competition in focus.”
“YTD multiple compression suggests negative sentiment into the print,” wrote Post. He added that Uber trades at about 10 times its 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA, “near its all-time low.”
DoorDash is getting bigger as its rival walks away
The competitive backdrop is shifting fast. DoorDash is in advanced talks to buy Instacart (CART) in a deal valued at about $17 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Instacart’s market value was about $13 billion before the report. Press reports suggest Uber walked away from its own talks, the Bank of America analysts wrote.
Uber is placing different bets. It agreed this month to buy catering platform ezCater for $2.3 billion in cash, and it has also agreed to acquire Delivery Hero, the note said.
The two rivals are also fighting over the same partners. Costco signed delivery deals with both Uber Eats and DoorDash in September, with Uber Eats covering nearly 600 Costco locations in 47 states, the note said.
Drivers face their own squeeze. The national average for regular gas was $4.27 a gallon on Oct. 22, down from $4.41 on Oct. 1, according to AAA.
“The drop is fueled by the transition to winter-blend gasoline,” AAA said. Post still flagged elevated gas prices as a possible risk to driver supply and margins.
Given that backdrop, it’s easy to understand why the bank thinks the earnings call matters more than the quarter itself.
Bank of America says robotaxis will decide the next move
Post expects a quarter in line with Wall Street. He estimates gross bookings of $59.8 billion, up about 20% from $49.7 billion a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] of $2.94 billion.
For the fourth quarter, he expects guidance of $62.75 billion to $64.75 billion in bookings and adjusted earnings of 96 cents to $1 a share.
He trimmed his 2026 adjusted earnings estimate to $3.43 a share from $3.45, mostly because a stronger dollar shrinks Uber’s overseas sales.
Delivery may surprise to the upside, though.
Bank of America card data showed online restaurant spending up 10% in the third quarter. That’s an acceleration from the second quarter, the analysts wrote.
The bigger question is robotaxis. Waymo plans to grow its fleet from about 4,000 vehicles to 8,000 by year-end and 20,000 by the end of 2027, Semafor reported, according to the note.
“We believe an update on more visible US AV [autonomous vehicle] supply pipeline (NVIDIA deal a potential driver) is key for sentiment,” wrote Post.
Much will likely depend, however, on whether Uber’s partners can actually deliver the cars. Lucid alone has committed at least 35,000 vehicles, and Post wants updates on whether partners, “especially Lucid,” can meet those commitments.
In my analysis, there’s an irony in the math. Bank of America cut its estimates and kept its $101 price objective, yet the implied upside jumped to 53.5% from about 43% last month simply because the stock fell.
For Post, that gap is the opportunity. “We see room for multiple expansion with AV progress,” he wrote, reiterating a Buy rating.
Related: Bank of America sees 43% upside in beaten-down ride-hailing giant
