Tesla will publish Q2 deliveries over the coming days following the biggest three-month decline on record for shares of the world’s most-valuable carmaker.
Tesla (TSLA) – Get Tesla Inc. Report shares, fresh off their worst quarterly decline on record, trimmed their slump Friday as investors brace for what could be a grim reading on global deliveries in the coming days.
Street forecasts suggest Tesla, which has been hit by a 22 day shutdown at its Shanghai factory that likely loped 60,000 units from its overall total, as well as surging input costs and capital spending required to ramp-up production at new factories in Berlin and Austin, will deliver around 295,000 cars over the three months ending in June.
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That’s down from its first quarter record of 310,048 units and would end a two year run of improving tallies. But indications are that the total may be even worse: analysts have shared what they claim to be consensus estimates collected by Tesla’s investor relations team showing a second quarter delivery estimate of $256,700, comprised mostly of Model 3 and Model Y sedans.
The formal delivery numbers are expected from Tesla on Saturday, but the group has been known to publish them at around 8:30 am Eastern time on the first of the month as well.
“While June delivery numbers will be ugly and nothing to write home about, the Street will be focused on the trajectory for the second half and the overall demand picture staying firm,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a recent client note.
Tesla shares were marked 0.5% higher in pre-market trading to indicate an opening bell price of $677.00 each, a move that would extend the stock’s year-to-date decline to around 36%.
Last month, Tesla boosted the cost of its long-range Model Y by around 5%, to $65,990, while the base cost for the Model 3 long range sedan rose $2,000 to $57,990. Model S prices were increased by $5,000 to $104,990. The changes mark the second price increase of this year and the third since last October.
Raw materials prices, as well as labor costs linked to overall production cycles, have risen steadily over the past year, while Nickel prices — a crucial component in EV battery making — have risen around 30% so far this year to around $25,500 per ton on the London Metals Exchange, while battery-grade lithium carbonate prices are up around 60% from early 2021 levels.
Tesla told investors in April that “the inflationary impact on our cost structure has contributed to adjustments in our product pricing, despite a continued focus on reducing our manufacturing costs where possible.
A pullback in deliveries might be the least of Tesla’s worries when its reports second quarter earnings on July 20, as investors count the cost of both China’s Covid lockdown on its overall production and the impact of Elon Musk’s pursuit of a $44 billion takeover of social media group Twitter (TWTR) – Get Twitter Inc. Report.
Tesla shares have fallen around 41.1% since Musk made his 9.1% stake in Twitter public on April 4 as investors discounted both Musk’s margin loans on the purchase, his sale of around $9 billion in Tesla shares and the billionaire’s growing leadership portfolio, which includes space exploration group SpaceX, The Boring Company construction company and neurotechnology specialists Neuralink Corp.
The group is also facing a significant writedown on its $1.5 billion holding in bitcoin, which has fallen some 60% since the end of March.
Estimates of Tesla’s bitcoin carrying costs vary, but the timing of the purchase suggests a level of around $32,600. That value, of course, surged in the latter half of 2021, when bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $67,000, but now looks far more fragile after briefly crashing below the $25 level earlier this week.
Bitcoin prices were last seen trading 2.6% higher on the session at $19,025.50 each, a move that leaves the world’s biggest cryptocurrency down 58% for the year.
