The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its estimate of new applications for jobless benefits Thursday as investors continue to re-price Federal Reserve rate bets amid hawkish signaling from officials and surprisingly resilient job market.
Around 215,000 people filed new applications for the week ending on September 23, the BLS is likely to report, compared to the eight-month low tally of 201,000 reported over the prior period, a figure that stoke inflation concerns and, in part, triggered the ongoing risk in Treasury yields.
The weekly jobless claims data, as well as tomorrow’s August reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price index, could be the last two inflation-focused data points published for several weeks, if an expected government shutdown begins later this weekend.
That puts extra emphasis on today’s data, which comes amid a worrying surge in short and mid-term Treasury yields that has lifted 10-year note rates to the highest since 2007 and powered the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its global currency peers, at the highest levels in 10 months.
Earlier this month, BLS data showed 187,000 new jobs were created last month, firmly ahead of the Wall Street forecasts, with average hourly earnings rising 4.3% from last year.
Economists at Vanguard, however, see softer hiring prospects following a muted reading of their own August employment report, which showed a pullback in new hires as a percentage of existing employees
“Employers may be pulling back on hiring in response to a slowdown in attrition but also as a way to limit labor costs in anticipation of slowing growth,” said Vanguard’s Adam Schickling. “Compared with last month, the slowdown in hiring is now more broad across all sectors.”
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