Despite stubborn inflation, high interest rates, and overall economic uncertainty, 2023 was a pretty solid year for markets, with stocks notching major gains. But will this rally hold up in 2024? TheStreet’s J.D. Durkin sat down with three experts to discuss how markets will perform in the year ahead.
Full Video Transcript Below:
J.D. DURKIN: Considering current economic conditions, what are your expectations for the stock market’s growth or maybe the stock market’s decline in 2024?
REBECCA WALSER: I would say that it can go one of two ways. Really we could continue kind of a 2023 pattern with the Federal Reserve attempting that soft landing. The markets, of course, are promulgating that. They think that we’d see a cut as early as March. So if that happens and we really can successfully achieve a complete soft landing and inflation really does start to ease and things start to get back, there’s a real chance that we could see, you know, a great year of returns on equities for 2024.
CALLIE COX: Well, first of all, I have to give props to the economy. The economy has been so resilient this year and we see it staying resilient into next year. Of course, a recession is a huge risk on the table. I hope we avoid it for the better of mankind and for the markets. But we also have to think about the fact that the economy, while being resilient, could slow down into 2024. Interest rates are still quite high, even though the Fed has hinted that they could lower them quite soon. But, you know, the job market still looks strong. We’re seeing the benefits, benefits of lower inflation now. And, you know, the Fed is willing to be flexible with policy. So if we see a recession next year, it could be mild. We think the markets will look past it.
MICHELE SCHNEIDER: There are always little ticking bombs around that think you have to remain aware of, even though we’ve managed to circumvent them to this point, of course, not the least of which would be the geopolitical situation. We have an election year that can be quite contentious. We still have a lot of weather issues, supply chain issues that come to basic commodities, like, for example, rice, which is on a 15 year high. And maybe the Fed is not going to be not quite as dovish as people think. And if they are too dovish, what does that really mean? But right now, as long as we hold this 4,600 level in the SPY can’t be negative.
