Full Video Transcript Below
J.D. Durkin: Dana, what are you expecting in the realm of consumer confidence for the new year? Do you expect to see a more confident consumer?
Dana Peterson: Actually, we don’t. And that’s because we actually have a recession call for the first half. A recession that will be short. It will be shallow. It won’t be too painful. We wont have That many job losses. The unemployment rate is not going to spike. Maybe it rises to around 4.3% But if you hear that your neighbor’s been let go or that, you know, things are a little bit tough, earnings are not so great, stock market’s not doing so well, then you’re probably not going to have as good a confidence. So we would expect that confidence would probably start ticking back down again in the first half of 2024.
J.D. Durkin: Dana, what are the biggest headwinds you think facing the consumer once we turn the calendar page to 2024?
Dana Peterson: Well, I think one of the biggest headwinds will be, again, that recession we’re calling for. But even if we don’t have a big recession, we could still see a slowdown and that will feel like a recession. And for many consumers, especially if you’re in certain industries like technology or transportation and warehousing or residential construction, we are seeing some layoffs and that may intensify. So that’s going to impact the consumer. And certainly those folks who might have been thinking about buying a big ticket item. Now they won’t because the interest rates are high. No one’s really thinking about buying a home because mortgage rates are high and they’re probably not going to fall off very quickly, very rapidly. So I think those are all going to be very much headwinds for the consumer ahead.
