Washington, D.C., can be a tough town to navigate for even the most seasoned bureaucrat; for a political neophyte like Elon Musk, it has proven impossible.
The latest repudiation against Musk’s foray into politics came Tuesday when Susan Crawford won a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election.
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The local election became a national flashpoint when outside billionaires like George Soros and Elon Musk began pouring millions into the war chests of Crawford and her Republican opponent Brad Schimel, respectively.
Reports have varied about exactly how much Musk spent on Schimel, but there are estimates that he personally poured $25 million into the race. Controversially, he even gave two $1 million checks away to voters to entice them to vote for his candidate.
But Musk didn’t just rely on his money to exercise his free speech; he also used his bullhorn on X, formerly called Twitter, to push his candidate.
Related: Tesla Q1 deliveries tumble as Elon Musk’s political role hammers sales
“This Wisconsin Supreme Court race might decide the future of America and Western Civilization!” Musk said. “It’s a big deal.”
Despite his involvement in the process, maybe even because of it, given the souring sentiment toward the billionaire, Susan Crawford won the election (rather handily).
However, one bearish note from JPMorgan this week suggests that Musk’s own Tesla empire may be the one whose future is in question.
The backlash against Tesla has led to vandalism as well as lower sales.
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JPMorgan says Tesla is in an ‘unprecedented’ situation
Tesla shares were down 9% Friday afternoon after analysts at JPMorgan published a note saying that the delivery miss Tesla reported earlier this week was due to the “unprecedented brand damage” Musk’s foray into Washington as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency.
Earlier this week, Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 336,681 units, missing JPMorgan’s own trimmed-down forecast by 18,000 vehicles, or 5.2%.
The firm blamed itself for not reducing its estimates for the quarter further, stating it “may have underestimated the degree of consumer reaction” to Musk’s new political life.
Its Q1 2025 deliveries were 13% less than the 386,810 vehicles the company sold during the same period last year and 32% lower than the record 495,570 it sold in the preceding quarter.
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“What does seem clear, however, is that the trend in Tesla sales is worse than we and the market had appreciated, prompting us to lower our already below consensus estimates accordingly and to expect consensus to decline further, toward our new lower estimates,” lead analyst Ryan Brinkman said.
JPMorgan lowers Tesla outlook
Unfortunately for Tesla investors, JPMorgan doesn’t see the first quarter dip as a one-off situation.
The firm lowered its full-year delivery estimates lower. JPMorgan now expects Tesla to deliver 1,715,000 vehicles this year, down from its previous estimate of 1,775,000.
The firm reduced its first-quarter earnings estimate down to 36 cents per share from 40 cents per share, well below Wall Street consensus estimates of 46 cents per share.
“We continue to see large downside to our $120 December 2025 price target,” analysts said.
Tesla shares were trading at $243.14 at last check on Friday afternoon.
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