Nvidia shares moved firmly higher in early Monday trading following a bullish note on the AI-chip maker’s near-term prospects heading into its crucial fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings report after the close of trading on Wednesday.
The Santa Clara, Calif., group (NVDA) , which remains in negative territory for the year following its staggering $2.3 trillion market-value surge in 2024, will update markets on the final quarter of its fiscal year, which ended in January, and guide investors on its current-quarter sales forecast.
💵💰Don’t miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet’s free daily newsletter 💰💵
Wall Street analysts are looking for overall revenue growth of around 7.2%, to a total of $38.05 billion.
Data-center sales, which comprise its AI-powering chips and processors, including its new Blackwell line and its legacy Hopper offerings, are estimated 82% higher from the year-earlier quarter to $33.6 billion.
Nvidia earnings, and its near-term sales forecast, will be a crucial event for the markets this week.
Key to the update will be Chief Executive Jensen Huang’s commentary on broader AI demand. That’s particularly in light of China-based DeepSeek’s emergence as a cut-priced chatbot competitor, as well as capacity constraints that may have slowed the sale of its higher-end Blackwell server racks.
Nvidia stock lost $593 billion in market value, the most on record, after the DeepSeek chatbot launched in late January.
Markets are braced for Nvidia stock-price swings
Markets are also braced for more volatility from the update amid the broader underperformance of megacap tech stocks and worries that massive capital spending plans from top providers of cloud infrastructure and services have yet to yield significant profits.
Options traders expect a 7.7% swing, in either direction, for Nvidia’s share price in the wake of its Wednesday report. Based on the stock’s $3.4 trillion market value, a move of that size could result in gains or losses of around $280 billion.
“All eyes will be on Blackwell commentary, where we see management reaffirming Blackwell shipments beginning in [Q4] and demand continuing to exceed supply through [fiscal 2026],” said Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann.
“We see shipments of Blackwell accelerating as we progress through the year, with a stronger [second half],” he said.
Related: Analyst revisits Nvidia stock price target with Q4 earnings in focus
Mosesmann, who reiterated his buy rating and $220 price target on Nvidia stock in a note published Monday, expects a “modest beat and raise for Nvidia’s January quarter and March quarter outlook versus consensus estimates.”
LSEG data suggest analysts expect April-quarter revenue in the region of $41.75 billion, a tally that suggests a slower, but still impressive, 60% growth rate. Data-center sales are expected to rise 65% to $37.21 billion.
Nvidia is set up well for 2025 – Rosenblatt analyst
“We continue to view the setup in (calendar year 2025) positively for Nvidia, with a strong Blackwell ramp that is resilient to unit share losses to GPU and ASIC accelerator players,” Mosesmann said.
“Nvidia’s roadmap ([for] which we expect an update at GTC in March) is one of increasing value that is highly complex with multiple configurations,” he added. GTC is Nvidia’s Global Technology Conference in San Jose, Calif., March 17 to 21.
More AI Stocks:
AI startup smashes funding round, signals big changes for health careAnalyst revisits Palantir stock forecast following annual report filingAnalyst who predicted Palantir rally picks best AI software stocks
KeyBanc Capital markets analyst John Vinh, who boosted his Nvidia price target by $10 to $190 a share in a note published late last week, noted the impact of capacity constraints on Blackwell deliveries but still expected strong results and guidance after the close of trading Wednesday.
Vinh also said the launch of the DeepSeek chatbot likely created “a surge in demand for (Hopper) GPUs from China cloud-service providers,” which could offset some of the Blackwell revenue concern.
Nvidia shares at last check were marked 2.2% higher at $137.36, a move that could nudge the stock into positive territory for the year.
Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast
