Apple (AAPL) will unveil its next generation of iPhones on Sept. 9, according to Reuters, but the most important product it shows may not look like the iPhone consumers have carried around for the past 19 years.
Apple is likely to launch its first foldable iPhone, potentially creating a new premium category just as the overall smartphone industry is reeling from a major slump in unit sales.
That timing makes the product more than just another Apple hardware experiment.
IDC now expects global smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026, the largest annual decline on record. But shipments of foldable phones are expected to grow 12.6%, making it pretty much the only meaningful pocket of growth in the market.
IDC estimates that Apple could ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, accounting for around 40% of the global foldable market and generating over $45.7 billion in value from the category.
The research firm sees an average selling price exceeding $2,550.
That makes Sept. 9 potentially one of Apple’s most consequential iPhone launches in years and the first major test for new CEO John Ternus.
Apple is entering a smartphone market where fewer phones cost much more
Apple will host a special event on Sept. 9 at 10 a.m. PST, although the company has not disclosed which products it will introduce. Rumors, however, are swirling that the tech giant will unveil its latest iPhone family and possibly its long-awaited foldable model.
The foldable is expected to have a display the size of an iPad mini when opened.
But the bigger story for investors is what is happening to the economics of smartphones. IDC expects global smartphone shipments to decline 16.7% to just over 1 billion units this year. At the same time, industry revenue is projected to increase 6.3% to $613 billion.
The price is the reason.
That is expected to push the average selling price for a smartphone up 27.6% to $581 in 2026, according to IDC, as manufacturers pass the sharply higher component costs onto customers. IDC says memory prices are up more than 300% from a year ago.
That’s a very different marketplace than the one Apple spent years on top of.
Consumers are buying fewer devices, but the companies that can convince them to buy expensive models could still generate substantially more revenue.
Apple appears well-positioned for that shift. iPhone shipments are expected to fall by about 1.3%, but IDC sees Apple’s iOS share hitting a record 23.6% in 2026. By comparison, Android shipments are expected to fall 24.3%.
That is to say, not all smartphone manufacturers are being hit equally by the downturn. And Apple’s answer could be to go even further upmarket.
A $2,550 iPhone could change Apple’s growth equation
An iPhone that costs more than $2,500 would be far outside the mainstream for Apple. That’s exactly why the economics are interesting.
IDC predicts that shipments of folding devices will reach 22.9 million units in 2026, rising a further 18% to approximately 27 million in 2027. It expects Apple’s arrival to turn what has been a somewhat niche category into the fastest-growing segment of the smartphone industry.
IDC says Apple could one day make up more than half of the whole foldable category’s value.
That would be impressive, given that Samsung has been building itself as the world’s top name in foldable smartphones for years. Samsung is preparing for Apple’s arrival with another passport-sized foldable device, as Samsung still dominates the segment.
Related: Apple is quietly preparing a major change inside its stores
Apple doesn’t need tens of millions of foldable buyers right away.
Even at the price that IDC projects, over $2,550, relatively modest unit volumes could create a meaningful new revenue stream. That’s $43 billion in potential retail value, based on $2,550 per device for 17 million devices.
IDC’s own forecast estimates that by 2027, Apple’s foldable value will exceed $45.7 billion.
A business is not simply about the money, though.
Premium products can help support Apple’s margins at a time when component costs are rising rapidly.
Apple’s supply chain creates the catch
This is where the story becomes more complicated.
Apple’s latest financial results show a company growing strongly in the face of a broader consumer-electronics slowdown.
Fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 16% to $109.4 billion, setting a June-quarter company record. Diluted earnings per share rose 29% to $2.02, while gross margin reached 50.1%, partly helped by tariff refunds.
More Apple:
- Apple rewrites how Americans pay for iPhones
- Bank of America doubles down on Apple stock ahead of earnings
- Apple’s iPhone 18 AI bet hides a pricing trap
iPhone, Mac, and Services all set June-quarter revenue records.
But Apple has also cautioned that it has major supply constraints. Apple said in July it was dealing with “very significant” supply-chain shortages that will pressure revenue in the current quarter.
The company has already raised prices on Mac and iPad models as memory and storage costs increased, potentially alienating its user base.
The latest industry data from IDC make the problem clearer.
Global smartphone shipments dropped 7.4% year over year to 276.3 million units in the second quarter, and memory costs were up nearly 300% from a year ago. IDC says memory now accounts for more than 65% of a device’s bill of materials on the low end of the smartphone market.
Apple could absorb those costs more easily with a premium foldable than cheaper competitors. But it adds another technically tricky product to build during one of the worst component squeezes in the industry.
That means Apple’s ability to manufacture the device at scale may be just as important as demand from consumers.
John Ternus is inheriting a very different Apple
The September event also has a unique significance: It will be the first major launch under Apple’s new leadership.
Apple’s longtime hardware chief, Ternus will take over as CEO on Sept. 1, with Tim Cook becoming executive chairman, Reuters reported. The appointment was seen as a sign that Apple is putting renewed focus on its traditional hardware strengths.
That makes the rumored foldable a strangely fitting opener.
Ternus would inherit Apple’s installed base of more than 2.5 billion active devices and quarterly sales of more than $100 billion, as revealed earlier this year.
But Apple also operates in a market where it’s getting harder to simply sell more smartphones. So the opportunity is shifting.
Apple can expand not by getting everyone to upgrade their phones more often, but by persuading a smaller proportion of its gigantic customer base to purchase far more expensive devices. That strategy is a near-perfect fit for a foldable iPhone that could cost more than $2,500.
Apple may not need the smartphone market to recover
This year, the global smartphone market is expected to ship about one-sixth fewer units. That would be troubling news for a company whose flagship product is the iPhone.
Instead, Apple just reported record iPhone sales for the June quarter, and IDC sees the company gaining global market share and perhaps taking around 40% of the foldable market by 2027.
The numbers suggest Apple may be finding another way to grow: fewer devices, higher prices, and a larger share of the industry’s most profitable customers.
That may be the biggest takeaway for investors heading into Sept. 9, and the event will show whether the foldable iPhone really becomes part of that strategy.
If it does, it will be Ternus’s first major product launch as CEO and with an unusually large assignment.
But Apple isn’t just trying to sell you another iPhone. It will try to show that a device likely to cost more than $2,500 can be a growth engine, even as the rest of the smartphone market shrinks.
Related: A $650 smartphone takes aim at Apple and Samsung’s surging repair costs
