Business confidence improved in July, but remains subject to fast-moving developments in the Middle East. Key results, July 2026 Business confidence: 56.1 (Prev: 36.6) Expectations for own activity: 49.3 (Prev: 36.9) Activity vs same month Read more…
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TL;DR: The Fed’s July hold looked hawkish on the surface, but September hike odds actually fell to 65% from 76%. At the same time as the US 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since Read more…
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently correcting the strong advance from the 6317 low to the 7620 peak in wave 2. Based on the current Elliott Wave structure, the index appears to be forming a Read more…
Key Highlights USD/CHF gained strength for a move above 0.8150. A rising channel is forming with support at 0.8170 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD is now at risk of a move below 1.1350. Gold prices Read more…
Australia’s import prices surged 5.7% qoq in the second quarter, far exceeding expectations of a flat reading and marking the largest quarterly increase since the December 2021 quarter. The sharp acceleration underscores the extent to Read more…
New Zealand business confidence strengthened sharply in July, with ANZ’s Business Outlook survey suggesting firms have become increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Headline business confidence rose sharply to 56.1 from Read more…
Wall Street analysts get paid to be right eventually, not immediately. That gap is where the damage usually happens to everyone else, because a rating that flips inside a single quarter tells you the conviction Read more…
The Fed maintained its monetary policy unchanged in the July meeting. Three participants voted for a hike in line with our expectations, but importantly, Chair Warsh voted with the majority for unchanged rates. Warsh’s tone Read more…
Real data is unlikely to be decisive for policy in coming months, leaving market expectations to determine financial conditions. At their July meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to leave the fed funds rate unchanged. Productivity Read more…