SanDisk has risen 3,218% over the past 12 months. It is up roughly sixfold year-to-date alone. And a Citi analyst just raised the price target by 56% in a single note, making Citi the fifth firm to set a target at $2,000 or above.
The reasoning behind this raise is more specific than typical analyst momentum calls. It is built on a new valuation framework, a specific external data point from a Japanese partner, and a buyback calculation that adds another layer of EPS upside most investors have not fully modeled.
What Citi changed on SanDisk and what the Kioxia earnings showed
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant raised her price target on SanDisk to $2,025 from $1,300 on May 19, maintaining a Buy rating.
The new target implies approximately 52% upside from SanDisk’s May 19 closing price of $1,333.01.
Citi is now the fifth firm to set a target at $2,000 or above, with 20 of 26 analysts covering the stock maintaining a Buy or equivalent rating, according to CoinCentral.
The external trigger for the raise was Kioxia’s latest earnings. The Japanese memory manufacturer co-develops and manufactures NAND flash memory with SanDisk through joint ventures at Yokkaichi and Kitakami.
Kioxia reported approximately 85% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and guided for 75% sequential growth in the current quarter, both ahead of Wall Street expectations, according to CoinCentral.
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Citi said those results indicate “persistently strong” storage demand and a “highly favorable” pricing environment.
Because SanDisk and Kioxia share the same NAND manufacturing system, Kioxia’s improved pricing and margin trajectory is not just comparable data. It is a mirrored verification of conditions SanDisk benefits from directly, Investing.com confirmed.
Why Citi changed its valuation framework and what the new EPS estimates show
The most analytically significant part of Citi’s note is not the target number but the valuation re-rating that produced it. Citi moved from a 7 to 8 times price-to-earnings framework to a 9 to 10 times multiple based on calendar year 2027 earnings, arguing that SanDisk’s long-term supply agreements make its earnings more like contractual cash flow than cyclical profits.
Those agreements include price floors, predetermined volumes, and financial guarantees. Citi believes they could support gross margins above 80% even during weaker pricing cycles, which justifies a premium multiple versus NAND peers like Kioxia, which trades near 7 times.
The EPS revision reflects that framework. Citi raised its FY26 EPS from $64.29 to $67.97, its FY27 EPS from $182.26 to $217.70, and its FY28 EPS from $155.13 to $215.09, Bitget confirmed.
NAND average selling prices are forecast to rise more than 186% year-over-year in 2026, with enterprise SSD pricing climbing even faster. Kioxia said demand is expected to exceed supply through 2027, Investing.com noted.
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How SanDisk’s $6 billion buyback adds another layer of EPS upside
Citi also highlighted SanDisk’s $6 billion share repurchase program as an additional earnings driver. The authorization represents approximately 3% of the company’s current market capitalization.
Citi estimates that for every 1% reduction in SanDisk’s share count, EPS rises by approximately $2, implying roughly $6 in additional EPS from buybacks alone if fully executed, according to CoinCentral.
Key figures from Citi’s May 19 SanDisk note:
- Citi new price target: $2,025, raised from $1,300, Buy maintained, analyst Asiya Merchant; implied upside approximately 52% from $1,333.01 close
- Valuation framework: PE multiple raised from 7-8x to 9-10x CY27 earnings; LTAs reframe cyclical profits as contractual cash flow
- EPS revisions: FY26 from $64.29 to $67.97; FY27 from $182.26 to $217.70; FY28 from $155.13 to $215.09
- Kioxia results: approximately 85% QoQ revenue growth; guided 75% sequential growth next quarter; demand to exceed supply through 2027
- NAND ASP forecast: more than 186% YoY increase in 2026; enterprise SSD pricing rising faster
- Buyback: $6 billion authorization; Citi estimates $2 EPS gain per 1% share count reduction
- SanDisk 12-month performance: up 3,218%; 20 of 26 analysts rate Buy; Citi is the fifth firm with a target at $2,000 or above
Source: Citi May 19 Sandisk note
What investors should watch as SanDisk’s AI storage thesis develops
SanDisk was spun out from Western Digital in February 2025 as a pure-play flash memory and storage manufacturer. Its rise from a lightly followed memory cyclical to one of the market’s most closely watched AI infrastructure names reflects a genuine shift in how investors think about enterprise solid-state drive demand.
AI data center buildouts require persistent, low-latency storage at a scale traditional spinning disk cannot efficiently serve, and SanDisk is the most direct US-listed exposure to that demand.
The risk in Citi’s call is not primarily about SanDisk’s fundamentals. It is about the stock’s starting valuation after a 3,218% run. Citi’s argument is that LTAs and contractual pricing floors change the multiple calculus. Whether the market agrees will be determined quarter by quarter.
The most near-term verifiable signal is Kioxia’s next quarter. If it delivers on its guidance of 75% sequential growth and margins approaching 74%, Citi’s thesis on SanDisk’s pricing environment gets real-time confirmation. That confirmation would put the $2,025 target in a very different light than it appears today.
Related: Analysts reset Sandisk stock forecast after massive rally
