September’s soft NFP report pushed the probability of an October Fed pause to 77.9%, but Treasury yields and Dollar Index both reversed higher by Friday’s close as markets judged the data wasn’t enough to resolve the bigger inflation risk—a risk Brent crude’s hold above $100, despite a coordinated G7 reserve release, helped confirm is still live. Together, that shows markets are repricing when the Fed moves next, not whether further tightening is still on the table.
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