The national 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.52% the week of June 11, according to Freddie Mac, its second-highest point of 2026. The average 30-year rate is 6.25% so far this year.
I have reported on mortgage rates for years, and my readers were much happier when rates were in the 3% range back in 2020 and 2021. A lot of potential buyers or refinancers wish rates would drop that low again — man, even a 6% rate would be fantastic news for many.
Fannie Mae has released its June 2026 Housing Forecast with expert predictions about various aspects of the housing market. Including mortgage rates.
Unfortunately, Fannie Mae doesn’t foresee the 30-year rate dropping to 6% anytime soon.
Fannie Mae’s mortgage rate predictions increase
In the Fannie Mae May Housing Forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) projected that the 30-year mortgage rate would average 6.3% throughout 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Then, it would drop to 6.2% for the remainder of 2027.
Now, Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to stay higher for longer.
The GSE predicts that the average 30-year rate will hold at 6.4% for the rest of this year and into Q1 2027. For Q2-Q4 2027, it puts the average rate at 6.3%.
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Fannie Mae based its interest rate projections on what rates were doing on May 31. Still, not much has changed since then to make me think the organization’s numbers are outdated.
The week of May 28, the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate was 6.53%. So, it was almost exactly the same as the rate on June 11, when Fannie Mae released its forecast.
Why Fannie Mae expects higher mortgage rates
So, why is Fannie Mae predicting higher mortgage rates throughout 2026 and 2027 than it did in its May Housing Forecast?
If the U.S. had made significant progress toward ending the war with Iran, mortgage rates would be lower right now. But there is no clear end in sight, so Fannie Mae can’t operate under the assumption that the war will end in a certain timeframe and cause mortgage rates to drop.
There’s also the economy to consider. In general, mortgage rates increase when the U.S. economy is doing well. Recent employment reports have been strong, helping to keep rates relatively high.
More on mortgage rates from Laura Grace Tarpley:
- Americans confront shifting reality after mortgage rate news
- Mortgage rate bets shift after surprising jobs report
- Americans meet unexpected challenge with mortgage news
The next Federal Reserve meeting is June 16-17. It’s unlikely that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate at this meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool — or at any of its 2026 meetings. In fact, there are reasons to believe the central bank will hike its rate before cutting it.
The combination of the Iran war, recent economic trends, and federal funds rate expectations are keeping Fannie Mae’s mortgage rate predictions high.
Key takeaways for homebuyers
- Waiting for lower mortgage rates may be fruitless. If you’ve been waiting to buy a house until mortgage rates fall, you’re probably out of luck. Fannie Mae doesn’t foresee rates dropping below 6.3% until at least 2028. So, if you can still afford a house at today’s rates, you may want to go ahead and move forward.
- No one can time the real estate market. This is another reason not to hold out for lower mortgage rates. Similar to the stock market, no one can predict what the housing market will do. These are Fannie Mae’s June projections, but a major political or economic event could shift the GSE’s expectations by the time July rolls around.
- You can refinance later. No one wants to lock in a relatively high mortgage rate. But remember, you can always refinance into a lower rate when rates do eventually go down.
- Use strategies for getting a lower rate. So, the housing market isn’t going to throw you a bone? Take your mortgage rate into your own hands. Consider buying discount points at closing, or search for a lender with a temporary rate buydown program. You can also improve your personal finances to get a better offer from a lender.
