Halloween candy shopping is getting expensive, and the latest grocery data suggests the problem extends well beyond the candy aisle.
Chocolate candy prices and product mix increased 9.5% year over year during the four weeks ended September 19, according to NielsenIQ data cited by Bank of America.
Meanwhile, the quantity of chocolate sold fell by 8.6%.
I’ve found myself putting $7.99 and $8 candy bags back on store shelves and reaching for cheaper alternatives. Chocolate isn’t the only product showing this pattern.
Coffee, soups, and several familiar packaged food brands are also recording higher average prices or product mix alongside declining purchases, according to the bank’s October 9 consumer staples report.
The findings come as Americans prepare for Halloween and Thanksgiving, two occasions when grocery shopping takes on added importance.
Candy prices rise ahead of Halloween; Hershey faces an unusual challenge
Halloween is one of the most important selling seasons for candy manufacturers.
Hershey’s brands, including Reese’s, Kit Kat, Hershey’s Kisses, and Jolly Rancher, are familiar fixtures in trick-or-treat baskets across the country.
Especially Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, which are one of the most popular candies during Halloween, according to data from Instacart.
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But chocolate has become considerably more expensive. Shoppers are ditching expensive brands, opting for private labels or more affordable candy options.
Hershey’s own retail performance suggests this change. Its sales declined 0.9% during the period, while the volume of products sold fell 10.6%. Its price/mix measure increased 10.9%.
In other words, shoppers bought significantly less Hershey merchandise by volume.
But higher average selling prices and changes in product mix helped offset the decline in total sales revenue.
Government data also confirms that candy prices are rising: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September Consumer Price Index report, released October 14, candy and chewing gum prices increased 7.7% from a year earlier. The broader sugar and sweets category recorded a 5.5% increase.
These figures become relevant as households prepare for Halloween and often purchase large quantities of candy for trick-or-treaters and seasonal celebrations.
It also highlights how expensive holiday shopping has become over the years.
And for retailers like Hershey, the challenge is maintaining demand for its popular brands in an environment where consumers are already buying fewer chocolate candy units.
Prices of Kraft Heinz, Campbell’s, General Mills products increased
Candies are not the only thing making a dent in the holiday budget this season.
Several major packaged food manufacturers are experiencing declining sales volumes, as their average prices or product mix have increased.
Kraft Heinz, the company behind Heinz ketchup, Kraft Mac & Cheese, Philadelphia cream cheese, and more, recorded a 2.3% decline in sales during the four weeks ended September 19.
The quantity of products sold declined 3.5%, while price/mix increased 1.3%.
The figures come as households prepare for Thanksgiving, when packaged foods, condiments, and pantry essentials become important parts of family meals.
- Campbell’s, known for its soups and other packaged foods, experienced a 4.4% decline in sales volume during the period, while its price/mix increased 2.1%.
- General Mills, whose brands include Betty Crocker and Pillsbury, recorded a 2.3% decline in product volume sold, as its price/mix increased by 0.9%.
- Conagra Brands, the company behind Birds Eye and Healthy Choice, reported a 4.8% decline in volume alongside a 4.3% increase in price/mix.
Together, the figures show that several major food manufacturers are selling fewer products even as their average prices or product mix increase.
While several categories are becoming more expensive, the broader grocery picture is far from uniform.
Why are candy, coffee and other grocery prices increasing?
BofA’s s report highlights a considerable difference between prices and purchases across everyday food products.
Coffee stands out alongside chocolate. Ground coffee, excluding single-serve products, registered an 8.6% increase in price/mix, while sales volume declined 8.4%.
The latest government inflation figures point in the same direction: The BLS reported that consumer coffee prices increased 7.1% year over year in September.
But not every product category follows that pattern.
The same government report showed that butter prices declined 10.3% compared with September 2025. There are several factors that have caused grocery prices to rise, from earlier increases in raw material costs to the costs of producing and transporting food.
Chocolate is one example. Hershey raised prices to offset elevated cocoa costs, and those increases now reflect in what consumers pay.
In its second-quarter 2026 earnings report, Hershey said its North American confectionery business benefited from approximately 14 percentage points of higher net pricing, but sales volume declined by approximately 10%.
Coffee presents a different situation.
According to the International Coffee Organization’s September 2026 Coffee Market Report, international green coffee prices fell 8.7% from August as Brazil’s large harvest increased global supplies.
However, the decline in wholesale coffee prices has not yet translated into lower U.S. grocery prices.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer coffee prices were still 7.1% higher in September than a year earlier. As major food companies disclose in federal filings, manufacturers routinely hedge agricultural purchases 12 to 24 months in advance.
Which means today’s shelf stock was contracted when markets were near peak pricing, delaying the transfer of lower-price relief to shoppers.
Another grocery cost challenge to come in 2027
The challenges facing food manufacturers may continue beyond the holiday season.
BofA said consumer staples purchasing trends appear to be stabilizing compared with earlier in 2026. However, companies are facing ongoing pressure from transportation, agricultural inputs, and other operating expenses.
These rising freight and driver costs are important concerns heading into 2027.
Higher transportation expenses can make it more expensive for manufacturers to move food and household products through their distribution networks.
Several companies are already experiencing the effects.
Before panic sets in: This does not automatically mean grocery prices will rise across the board.
Manufacturers can still respond through promotions, cost reductions, more efficient operations, and selective pricing decisions.
Still, the combination of higher costs and weaker sales volumes in certain categories presents a challenge for companies trying to protect profitability.
Related: Bacon giant Smithfield Foods faces unexpected challenge as pork prices drop
