If you’re just watching the stock market today, you have to be confused.
Parts of the markets are slumping, mostly technology and stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) .
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But energy stocks are higher, following oil prices. Stocks of staple industries, like retailers Walmart (WMT) , Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD) and grocery chain Albertsons (ACI) , are higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than 300 points after falling 716 points on Friday. But the Nasdaq Composite Index is down.
There’s a feeing of dread with confusion mixed in floating around Wall Street. BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink opened his annual letter to investors with this: “I hear it from nearly every client, nearly every leader — nearly every person — I talk to: They’re more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory.”
The unease stems from this environment.
A series of economic reports this week closes with the most important one of the month: the jobs report from the Labor Department.The Trump administration is expected to announce big new tariffs on Wednesday.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index look poised to finish their worst first quarters since 2020.
Jobs report tops the week’s economic data
The jobs report, due out at 8:30 a.m. Friday, might appear benign, but that’s because Americans haven’t yet been hit by mass layoffs.
At least not yet.
The Trump administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency are slashing the federal payroll, but how much of that job cut will turn up in Friday’s report is unclear.
The consensus is that the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 4.2%. RBC Capital Markets is projecting the rate to hold at 4.1%.
Payroll employment is expected to rise by 138,000. Again, that doesn’t account for federal government employment and job cuts. You might start to see those numbers in the weekly report on jobless claims, due Thursday morning.
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The Conference Board and the University of Michigan recently have issued reports showing consumer confidence is weak. Harder data might show up this week when S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management release final numbers for their purchasing-manager indexes for the manufacturing and service sectors.
The reports on manufacturing, due Tuesday, are likely to show declines. (These measure activity on a scale of 0 to 100. Above 50 means a sector is expanding; under 50 signals contraction.)
The service-sector PMIs, due Thursday, are likely to show expansion, but the rate might be slowing.
The Trump tariffs will grab attention
Tariffs on motor vehicles and their content parts are coming and are central to the outlook. These will be complex to enforce because just about every motor vehicle sold in the U.S., whether from domestic or foreign manufacturers, contains parts made outside
America.
Only one brand assembles all its U.S.-sold vehicles in the U.S.: Tesla (TSLA) . But some 40% of parts of Tesla vehicles are made outside the U.S.
In second place is Honda (HMC) at 75%, followed by Ford (F) and General Motors GM, at 74% and 71%, respectively.
A shopper paying for goods at a farmer’s market in San Francisco, Calif., this month.
Mercedes-Benz does final assembly only on a third of its vehicles. For Volkswagen, it’s 36% and for BMW 19%, according to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
The practical effect, most economists and many auto dealers say, will be higher prices on both new and used cars. Manufacturers will pass on costs to dealers, and dealers will pass them on to buyers.
Estimates indicate the price of a new car would rise between $4,000 and $5,000. A typical new car currently runs about $49,000.
President Trump dismissed complaints about his auto tariffs.
“I couldn’t care less because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they’re going to buy American cars,” Trump said in an NBC News interview. “I hope they raise their prices because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars. We have plenty.”
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Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products are also supposed to be imposed, and there’s talk the administration may impose tariffs on base metals, like copper, and on products like fertilizer just as farmers’ spring planting season begins.
Copper soared to a record $5.375 per pound on March 26 before falling back. It was trading at about $5.11 a pound early Monday.
Tesla reports on deliveries
On Tuesday or Wednesday Tesla also issues an important report, on its first-quarter deliveries. The data are made available on Tesla’s website with little commentary.
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The Austin electric-vehicle maker’s sales in Europe and China have been hurt because of increasing competition and because CEO Musk’s job-cutting activities with the Trump administration have angered many would-be buyers.
A number of brokerages have cut sales and delivery estimates for Tesla and target prices on its stock.
Tesla closed Friday down 3.5% at $263.55. The shares are down almost 35% this year and 46% from their 52-week high of $488.54, reached Dec. 18.
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