The stock market has rallied over 20% since April 9, when President Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, so-called “Liberation Day.”
The rally has lifted stocks despite significant uncertainty over the US economy, including risks of sticky inflation and slowing economic activity.
Related: Bank of America resets Fed interest rate cut forecast
On June 12, geopolitical instability added to investor concerns after Israel launched a missile attack on Iran targeting nuclear facilities, including military locations within Tehran. Reports are that specific Iranian leaders were also targeted in the attack.
Iranian government officials have reportedly said they will respond, suggesting Iranian attacks on Israel are forthcoming.
Crude oil prices are surging on concerns that tensions will spill over, potentially impacting Middle East crude oil shipments.
In 2023, 20.9 million barrels per day were transported through the Straight of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, equivalent to roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Brent crude futures rose nearly 8% to $74.65 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude similarly gained 8% to $73.42 a barrel, their highest levels since early February.
Stock market futures are falling due to the increased uncertainty. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.
This is a developing story.
Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast
