The first week of any month offers a look at some of the most important reports on the U.S. economy.
The reports can warn of trouble or good times ahead, frame political and social debate, and move financial markets up or down, sometimes in mere minutes.
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The reports start with what looks to be the esoteric, but they build up during the week to the most important report, the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department.
They are important this week because they offer a first — and admittedly bare bones — look at how the U.S. economy might react to the policies of President Donald Trump and his administration.
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And they shed light on some of the forces already at work, including:
Interest ratesEnergy pricesGeopoliticsCorporate expansions and contractions
Trump to address Congress on the economy
Trump himself will weigh in on the economy and markets with his first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday. It starts at 9 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time.
He is expected to offer a full-throated defense of his policies, which are built around the idea of “be with me or get out of the way.”
Job worries and related economic tensions pushed stocks lower in February, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 1.4% for the month.
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The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4%. Intel (INTC) was among the S&P 500 leaders, up 22.1% for the month. Tesla (TSLA) was among the losers, down 27.6%.
Consumer spending surprisingly fell 0.2% in January when economists expected a 0.1% increase.
Interest rates also fell as traders and investors worried that the economy was softening. Mortgage rates were around 6.75% as of Friday, after moving above 7% in January. The market turmoil prompted talk the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in June.
Here are the most important economic reports to watch for this week.
4 important reports on manufacturing, services
Four important reports will come this week: The Standard & Poor’s final U.S. Manufacturing PMI and the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing report for February. Both organizations report Monday morning.
On Wednesday morning, both organizations issue similar reports on the services economy.
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What they show: They start by looking at the current situation. Then, they offer glimpses of what businesses see coming ahead.
A bad PMI report can tank a stock-market rally in a heartbeat and can push the U.S. dollar lower.
How these reports can be good or bad. A reading above 50 suggests the economy is expanding. Below 50 suggests it is weakening. Wall Street now expects these indexes to be greater than 50. The ISM’s January manufacturing report signaled manufacturing was getting stronger after 26 months of modest contraction.
So far, Wall Street sees the reports coming in at above 50. Some respondents, the ISM says, are worried about tariffs. As many people know, the Trump administration sees tariffs as an important weapon and he has threatened to impose them widely. Whether they work and how they will affect the economy is not yet clear.
Recent reports on consumer confidence also have been murky.
Attendees and recruiters at a hiring event in Sacramento, Calif., on Feb. 27.
Durable and nondurable goods orders
What it is. This report from the Commerce Department looks specifically at orders for durable and nondurable goods. Wednesday’s report will center on orders from February and could confirm the purchasing managers reports.
The Wall Street estimate is that orders will show a 0.9% decline.
Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report
What is it is. The Beige Book is a narrative look at current business conditions around the U.S. While published by the Federal Reserve, it is actually written and produced by staffs at the 12 Federal Reserve Banks.
Why it is useful. Its value comes from the perspectives local teams gain by talking to business leaders, local economists and others about what they’re seeing and hearing. It often offers signals of trends starting to form or emerge.
Weekly benchmark of claims for jobless benefits
What it is. A weekly report (with a one-week lag) from the U.S. Department of Labor on the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits.
Why is useful. This offers an early look at what the jobs report will look like, perhaps this week but certainly in the month ahead.
What will this week’s report show. Jobless claims have started to tick up in recent weeks, in part because corporations have started to trim their staffs.
A private-sector look at job losses will grab headlines: the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Report. The report gathers up as many layoff reports that can be found from all sources but doesn’t claim to be all-inclusive. Its January report noted layoffs were up from December but down from January 2024.
More Economic Analysis:
Retail sales tumble in January, testing Fed rate cut forecastCPI inflation shock hammers Fed rate cut bets for 2025Rate cuts and tariffs will weigh on economic reports
The U.S. jobs report still rules all
Friday’s jobs report always comes with the vague headline “Employment Situation Summary.”
The consensus is that the report, issued before the markets open, will estimate the economy added 143,000 net jobs in February from January, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4%.
Any big change (up or down) from the consensus estimates will move markets. But they probably will not yet show much effect from the Trump administration’s campaign to reduce the federal government workforce.
Look to the report for March, due April 4, for a clearer picture. The Department of Government Efficiency layoffs have been messy; the government had to rehire some workers almost immediately, including those working on nuclear projects and bird flu.
The report measures the employment situation in two ways:
A household survey that asks respondents about their employment situations. An establishment survey that asks employers about their payrolls.
The reports diverge with regularity, but looked at over time they do tend to show consistent patterns.
Each report is revised for two months afterward as more data come in. Getting data has been more difficult in recent years.
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