SpaceX went public in June as the most anticipated listing in years.
The first few weeks were electric. Then the stock fell sharply, spending weeks below its IPO price while critics questioned whether the valuation had gotten ahead of the business.
Wall Street has spent the summer trying to figure out which SpaceX story is the real one. On Aug. 25, JPMorgan gave its answer.
JPMorgan gives SpaceX stock Overweight rating, $240 price target, citing Grok
Doug Anmuth, JPMorgan’s analyst covering SpaceX, reiterated an Overweight rating and a $240 price target on Aug. 25, implying roughly 75% upside from where the stock had traded, Benzinga reported.
JPMorgan raised that target after Q2 earnings earlier in August. This note is a reiteration of that view, not a fresh upgrade.
“SpaceX’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus, and we are increasingly positive on Grok,” Anmuth wrote, according to BeInCrypto. The firm has already seen Cursor data feed into Grok’s supplemental training, producing what it called “tangible improvements” in recent model performance.
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JPMorgan’s Grok argument rests on one word: cost. Grok 4.6 launched earlier this month and added roughly half a trillion dollars to SpaceX’s market value on debut.
The bank says the model sits on the Pareto frontier, meaning that nothing smarter is cheaper and nothing cheaper is smarter. For enterprise buyers, that is the only benchmark that actually moves purchasing decisions, according to Bloomberg.
The bank also expects a Grok 5 release later this year, with SpaceX maintaining a fast model-release cadence through the second half of 2026.
SpaceX Cursor acquisition brings enterprise-level AI customers
SpaceX’s acquisition of Cursor, which closed earlier this month for $60 billion, is the piece JPMorgan is most focused on. Cursor is an AI coding platform generating roughly $4 billion in annual recurring revenue, with about three-quarters of that coming from business customers.
Cursor’s existing customer base is the entry point. A business already paying for Cursor is a warm lead for Grok. Every coding session on the platform is also training data. The more developers use Cursor, the better Grok gets.
The coding AI market is not empty. GitHub Copilot, backed by Microsoft and OpenAI, has been in enterprise accounts for years. Google has its own offering. Amazon has CodeWhisperer.
Cursor carved out a meaningful position despite that competition by focusing on the developer experience rather than the underlying model. That gave SpaceX something its AI division was missing before the deal: a customer relationship at the enterprise level that did not depend on anyone already believing in Grok.
Anmuth also pointed to Grok Bot, an AI agent designed to complete tasks across business applications, as a product that could accelerate enterprise adoption beyond coding alone.
SpaceX’s AI unit is not yet profitable. It posted a significant loss in its most recent reporting period, according to Benzinga.
The Cursor acquisition adds recurring revenue but also adds integration risk. SpaceX needs to show that Cursor customers stay engaged and that the combined business can grow without sacrificing margins.
Other analysts have a very different read on the stock. Morningstar estimates fair value well below current trading levels. Morgan Stanley holds a base case and a bull case that sit far above JPMorgan’s target.
That spread reflects how little consensus exists on what SpaceX’s AI business is actually worth.
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SpaceX September share lockup expiration: what it means for the stock
JPMorgan’s note also flagged the most immediate risk heading into September, Benzinga noted. Nearly 370 million SpaceX shares are scheduled to unlock on Sept. 9 and 10, potentially increasing the publicly tradable float by roughly 20%.
This is the third major unlock since the June IPO. The first two releases each added hundreds of millions of shares to the market. The most recent event in late August caused only minor disruption, as TradingKey reported.
The September window is the largest remaining one on the calendar. Insiders waiting out their lockup periods will have their first or second chance to sell, depending on which tranche they hold.
That is not a guarantee of selling pressure. But it is a structural reason for the market to be cautious heading into those dates, regardless of what any analyst thinks about the AI story.
What JPMorgan’s SpaceX $240 target means for Grok, Cursor, Nvidia investors
JPMorgan’s bull case is not about rockets. At its $240 target, most of the valuation would rest on Grok and Cursor delivering durable enterprise revenue in a market dominated by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
For Nvidia investors, the note carries a secondary read. SpaceX confirmed Nvidia as its exclusive AI chip provider. A stronger Grok monetization story means more compute demand and more Nvidia hardware.
The two companies are also financially linked through a substantial Nvidia equity stake in SpaceX, as TheStreet reported.
The near-term signals worth watching are specific. Cursor’s customer retention numbers will show up in the next earnings release. Any disclosure of Grok enterprise contract wins would confirm whether the sales motion is working outside consumer subscriptions.
And if SpaceX’s AI unit narrows its losses, it will signal to investors that the Cursor integration is tracking the way JPMorgan thinks it should.
The next major test is SpaceX demonstrating that Grok and Cursor are generating real enterprise revenue growth in a market that has not yet decided which AI platform outside the hyperscalers actually wins.
Related: SpaceX just gave Nvidia investors a new reason to watch
