The founder of Baron Capital told investors that SpaceX (SPCX) could be worth $40 trillion in the next 10 to 15 years.
For context, that number is close to the value of every public company in the United States combined today.
Baron is not a stranger to calls like this. He made a similar bet on Tesla years before most investors would touch it, and it paid off in a big way.
Now he is pointing that same conviction at Elon Musk‘s rocket and satellite company, and he has put real money behind the forecast.
For investors watching SPCX fluctuate since its June debut, the question is simple. Is this a serious long-term call, or a number so large it stops meaning anything?
What Ron Baron actually said about SpaceX
Speaking on The Compound and Friends podcast, Ron Baron said SpaceX could eventually command a valuation between $20 trillion and $40 trillion, Yahoo Finance reported.
Asked directly if it would become the world’s biggest company, he answered yes.
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This is not a first-time guess. Back in May, ahead of the company’s initial public offering, Baron said SpaceX could reach $10 trillion, $20 trillion, or $30 trillion, and added that he might be aiming too low.
He has now raised that ceiling. The starting point for his math is the company’s IPO valuation of roughly $2 trillion.
Baron thinks that base grows 20 to 30 times over the next decade, an outcome he compares directly to his early Tesla position.
The three pillars behind the $40 trillion SpaceX math
Baron argues that treating SpaceX as only a rocket company misses where the real value sits. He builds the forecast on three parts of the business.
The first is Starlink, the satellite internet network.
Baron projects it scales from a current run rate of about $15 billion to $17 billion toward $1 trillion in annual revenue within a decade.
At that level, he estimates Starlink alone could be worth around $14 trillion, based on roughly 300 million global users and hundreds of billions in yearly profit.
The second pillar is space-based artificial intelligence.
Baron points to SpaceX’s plan to build data centers in orbit, which he says could eventually dwarf Starlink.
The idea is straightforward. Data centers in space can tap constant solar power and use the cold of space for cooling, which removes the electricity and utility costs that weigh on data centers on the ground.
The third pillar is cost.
Baron expects the Starship rocket to cut launch costs from about $1,500 per kilogram to roughly $150 per kilogram, which would widen SpaceX’s lead over rivals.
Baron Capital has real money on the line
Baron is not just making a public prediction. His firm has one of the largest concentrated bets in the market tied to Musk.
Here is how the position breaks down:
Baron Capital’s SpaceX stake
- Invested capital: About $2 billion across 27 private transactions since 2017
- Current value: Roughly $25 billion as of June 2026
- IPO addition: An extra $1 billion bought at the IPO to protect its 1.25% ownership stake
- Portfolio weight: SpaceX is now more than a third of the firm’s $70 billion in assets
The Tesla comparison matters here. Between 2014 and 2016, Baron put about $400 millioninto Tesla, a position that later produced $7.7 billion in profit.
His pattern is to build a stake over years, hold through the sharp drops, and let compounding do the work. That approach is exactly what he is applying to SPCX.
How SpaceX stock is trading right now
The near-term picture looks very different from Baron’s decade-long forecast.
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 a share, raising about $75 billion at a valuation near $1.75 trillion.
Shares ran to a high of $225.64 within days, then fell hard, dropping below the IPO price by late July.
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The mood has shifted again this week.
On Aug. 12, SPCX closed at $149.18, up 11.93% on the day and up 39.56% over the prior five trading days, adding $42.29 per share in that stretch.
That rebound followed a first earnings report that was stronger than expected.
SpaceX generated $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, above the $6.93 billion analysts expected, CNBC reported.
Short sellers have also been backing off. Short interest fell from about 34% a week earlier to roughly 11%, easing one of the stock’s biggest concerns.
What still has to go right, and where it could break
Baron’s target only works if a long list of things line up over many years.
Wall Street is more cautious than Baron.
The average 12-month analyst price target sits at $227.57, with Morgan Stanley at $300 and a bull case as high as $600, while Goldman Sachs is more cautious at $205.
The risks are real and worth watching.
Key risks for SpaceX investors
- Profitability: CNBC showed SpaceX made $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue but lost $4.94 billion.
- Competition: Blue Origin and satellite-to-phone players such as AST SpaceMobile are working to chip away at SpaceX’s lead.
- Key-man risk: SpaceX is tightly controlled by Musk, who also runs Tesla and xAI, which raises governance concerns for a company this size.
- Valuation: The stock already trades at a steep multiple of sales, leaving little room for error.
Baron’s forecast is a bet on what SpaceX can build over the next 10 to 15 years. It shouldn’t be anyone’s sole reason for buying or selling the shares.
SpaceX already has two real strengths: a launch business that leads the industry, and a Starlink network that keeps adding subscribers.
But two of the biggest pieces in Baron’s calculations haven’t happened yet. SpaceX hasn’t built its orbital data centers. Starlink also isn’t close to $1 trillion in revenue.
That gap matters for anyone deciding whether to buy the stock now.
If SpaceX delivers on those plans, investors who hold on could see major gains. If it doesn’t, the stock’s price could fall hard, since so much of today’s value depends on growth that hasn’t arrived yet.
Investors should decide how much of their portfolio they’re comfortable putting into that outcome before they buy.
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