If you’re counting your pennies more than ever these days, you’re in good company.
America is getting really antsy about the economy.
A new survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows:
Household inflation expectations ticking up.Unemployment and expectations for job losses are worsening. Hopes of finding a new job declining to a 12-year low.
The August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations measures how U.S. households expect inflation, the labor market and their household finances will change in the next 12 months.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Survey measures consumer expectations nationwide
The monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations measures how consumers:
Expect overall inflation plus prices of food, gas, housing and education to behave.View job prospects and earnings growth.Look at future spending and access to credit.
Related: Update: Fed faces ‘ghost’ jobs shock before key interest-rate-cut decision
The August 2025 SCE was released Sept. 8.
Consumer inflation expectations tick up
Inflation expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in August. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3%) and five-year-ahead (2.9%) horizons.Inflation uncertainty — the uncertainty about future inflation — increased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and declined at the five-year mark.Home-price growth expectations were unchanged for a third month at 3%. Note: This has been moving in a narrow range, 3% to 3.3%, since August 2023.Price-change expectations for gasoline (3.9%) and food (5.5%) also were unchanged for a third month.
Job concerns show sharp rise
The probability of finding a job if one lost a current job fell markedly, by 5.8 percentage points, to 44.9%, the lowest reading since June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education and income groups, but it was most pronounced for those with a high school education.One-year-ahead earnings-growth expectations slipped 0.1 percentage point to 2.5% in August, remaining below its 12-month average of 2.8%. Unemployment expectations, the probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, increased by 1.7 percentage points to 39.1%. The perceived probability of losing a job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 14.5%. The probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 18.9%.
The probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.8 percentage point to 13.1%.
Households report credit and debt concerns
The expected growth in household income remained unchanged for the second consecutive month at 2.9% in August.Household-spending-growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5%. Perceptions of access to credit improved from a year ago, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated somewhat, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.The probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.8 percentage point to 13.1%.
Gap in current personal financial situations
A larger share of households reported their financial situation had worsened and a smaller share of households reported their financial situations had improved. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations became more dispersed. A larger share of households are expecting a worse financial situation, and an equally larger share of households are expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
More about the SCE
The SCE is a national internet-based survey of some 1,300 heads of household.
Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months.Roughly an equal number rotate in and out of the panel each month.
Related: Secretary Bessent has curt response to inflation worry
