When you think of the best time to buy a house, your mind probably jumps to spring and summer. Those are the typical home-buying seasons.
However, every housing market is different. Redfin and Home Economics analyzed housing market data and found that the holiday season (think early November to mid-December) is the best time of year to buy in seven major U.S. metro areas.
Redfin defines the “best” time to buy in these cities as the period when buyers have access to the most new listings, the greatest inventory, and the strongest deals.
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Three of the seven cities’ peak times are in early November: Riverside, Calif., Tampa, Fla., and Milwaukee.
The other four cities reach their peak buying windows in mid-December: Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and West Palm Beach, Fla.; and Detroit.
“There’s a tradeoff to shopping for a home late in the year: Buyers may have fewer fresh listings to choose from, but they also face less competition, and many sellers are ready to make a deal,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan.
Redfin reveals why the holidays are a good time to buy in Florida and California
Four of the seven cities are in Florida, and one is in California. Redfin research found that housing markets in warmer climates tend to experience less seasonal volatility. In other words, home-buying activity doesn’t fluctuate as dramatically throughout the year.
Riverside, Calif., has a warmer climate than many parts of the country. Riverside’s “cool season” — meaning the average daily high is below 72 degrees — begins Nov. 23, according to Weather Spark. House hunting in early November, while the weather is still comfortable, could be ideal for buyers.
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Redfin’s research also found that seasonal swings were smaller primarily in Florida cities.
“South Florida’s biggest wave of buyers–retirees and seasonal residents–often show up after the new year, when the weather is sunny and comfortable in Florida but cold in the Northeast,” wrote Redfin.
That seasonal influx of buyers could make the post-holiday period more competitive. Buyers who start looking in November or December may have an opportunity to negotiate with sellers before that additional demand arrives.
Why winter weather can give Midwest homebuyers an advantage
Personally, I was surprised that Milwaukee and Detroit topped the list for holiday home-buying. When I imagine myself in the Midwest during the holidays, I picture it being cold at best, waist-deep in snow at worst.
But that winter weather could be exactly what works to these two metro areas’ advantage.
“Those northern metros have a fairly short selling season: Cold-weather markets compress the window for touring and closing on homes; sellers keep at it later into fall, trying to close a deal before the depth of winter hits and buyers hibernate,” wrote Redfin.
Many sellers view late autumn as their last opportunity to sell before winter brings the housing market to a near standstill. This can give buyers more negotiating leverage, potentially allowing them to secure a better deal.
Redfin also noted that Milwaukee is one of only five sellers’ markets in the U.S. right now. That makes the early-November buying window particularly interesting for buyers who might otherwise face stiff competition in this market.
The best time to buy a house is when you’re ready
If you live in one of these seven metro areas and are ready to buy a house, you’re in luck. November or December could offer you some great opportunities.
However, don’t force anything if you aren’t ready to buy yet, whether because you can’t comfortably afford monthly mortgage payments or you don’t think you’ll stay in one house for at least several years.
And if you shop for a home and still don’t find a place you love, don’t force yourself into buying just because the data says it’s a good time to buy.
Trying to time the housing market is a lot like trying to time the stock market. You can study all the available data, but you can’t predict exactly how the market will behave or whether the perfect opportunity will come along.
Only buy a house when it makes sense for your family, finances, and lifestyle.
Related: Here’s the monthly payment on a $1 million house at today’s rates
