RobinhoodCEO Vlad Tenev has a clear message for anyone who thinks prediction markets are a passing trend: Think again.
Speaking at the company’s Q1 2026 earnings call, Tenev laid out an ambitious vision for where he sees this fast-growing business heading.
And the numbers are already starting to back him up.
Robinhood posts record quarter for prediction markets
Prediction markets have gone from novelty to centerpiece in a remarkably short time at Robinhood (HOOD).
Just one year after launch, more than nine billion contracts had already been traded by over one million Robinhood customers, a pace that few product launches in the company’s history have matched.
“Robinhood is the largest retail brokerage firm in prediction markets, and we’ve been one of the first to adopt a new asset class,” Tenev stated.
In Q1, the platform posted a record quarter for prediction markets. CFO Shiv Verma told analysts that prediction markets volume in April was tracking toward roughly $3 billion, which would rank as the platform’s second-best month ever.
Tenev aims to own the exchange
Right now, Robinhood operates as a futures commission merchant, essentially a middleman listing contracts from third-party exchanges like Kalshi.
Tenev made it clear that the upcoming Q2 launch of Rothera, Robinhood’s joint-venture exchange with Susquehanna International Group, is a watershed moment.
Robinhood owns 45% of the venture, Susquehanna holds 45%, and MIAX retained a 10% stake. The platform gives Robinhood its own CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market.
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Why does that matter? In Tenev’s own words, it’s about control. Vertical integration means Robinhood gets to decide which products appear on the platform, at what price, and with what experience, without depending on anyone else.
Tenev had previously said prediction markets could “drive trillions in annual volume over time,” Yahoo Finance reported, and the Rothera launch is the infrastructure play that makes that ambition more credible.
Robinhood is ready to consolidate
One of the more pointed things Tenev said on the call was about where the broader prediction markets industry is heading. He’s not shy about it: He expects the space to consolidate significantly.
His reasoning is straightforward.
- There are now dozens of new exchanges popping up, many of which are going through the CFTC registration process.
- But most of them look alike. Tenev argued that real differentiation comes down to two things: an established, engaged customer base and a structural economic advantage.
- Robinhood has both. The company sits on 27 million funded accounts in the U.S.
- Through Rothera, it has Susquehanna, one of the leading market makers in the asset class, providing liquidity from day one. That combination is hard to replicate.
“I don’t believe there will be dozens of DCMs in the future,” Tenev said plainly. He expects consolidation to shake out over the next couple of years, and Robinhood intends to be standing when the dust settles.
However, some states have raised concerns about prediction markets, questioning whether the CFTC, a federal regulator, has sole jurisdiction over these products or whether states also have a role to play.
Tenev acknowledged the tension but didn’t flinch. He said Robinhood agrees with the CFTC’s position that these are federally regulated products.
In his view, it would be unusual for states to begin asserting authority over products subject to federal oversight.
The dispute, he said, will play out in the courts and regulatory channels over the coming years.
Robinhood eyes diversification
One detail from the earnings call that deserves more attention: Tenev flagged that prediction markets are beginning to diversify beyond sports.
A major advantage prediction markets have over crypto is that there is always something to bet on.
Major events like elections or sporting tournaments attract outsized engagement, and there are several such events every year, plus plenty of smaller ones throughout the year, which makes the revenue stream more consistent.
Robinhood is already enabling trading across sports, politics, culture, and more. With Rothera, it will be able to list its own contracts, meaning more control over which events get markets and how those markets are structured.
What this means for HOOD stock investors
Prediction markets are no longer a side story at Robinhood. The segment has become Robinhood’s fastest-growing business by revenue, and the Rothera launch is designed to accelerate that further.
The broader picture is of a company that spotted an emerging asset class early, built a retail base around it faster than anyone else, and is now making the infrastructure investment to dominate it in the long term.
If his consolidation thesis plays out, Robinhood could end up as one of the very few companies with real scale in what could be a multi-trillion-dollar market.
That’s a bold call. But so far, the numbers are moving in his direction.
