A near neighbor and strategic rival would replace Russia, should a prediction from President Biden come to pass.
President Biden has claimed that the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy will be catastrophic for that nation.
In fact, he has said that Russia’s economy, currently the eleventh largest in the world, will slide out of the top 20 list of largest economies in the world altogether.
Whether that actually comes to pass and how quickly remains very much in the air, however.
In 2021 Russia’s GDP was just under $1.65 trillion, based on International Monetary Fund data.
That put it in between South Korea, at $1.82 trillion and Brazil at $1.645 trillion, according to IMF numbers. The U.S. GDP by contrast was just under $23 trillion.
With the Russian ruble down sharply against the dollar, the nation’s central bank cut off from most of its reserves, most of the banking system cut off from the global SWIFT network, and hundreds of western companies halting operations or pulling out completely, Russia appears to be headed for a deep and nasty recession at the very least.
Goldman Sachs researchers forecast earlier this month that the Russian economy will shrink about 10% this year, with inflation surging to 20%.
That would be enough to drop it to 13th place, with a GDP Of $1.58 trillion just behind Australia and just ahead of Spain.
Still, Russia remains a key supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe, which has yet to cut off purchases.
In the event that Biden’s prediction does come to pass, the country will see its GDP fall to just under $825 billion, again using IMF data.
But that would still be enough to keep it in the top 20, just ahead of No. 20 Switzerland at $810 billion, according to the IMF.
A GDP fall below $795 billion would knock Russia out of the top 20 however, behind its long-term strategic rival Turkey, which incidentally controls Russia’s access to the Mediterranean via the Bosphorus.
Such an outcome would doubtless not please Putin.
