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U.S. equity futures moved firmly higher Thursday, while the dollar slipped to a one-week low against its global peers and Treasury yields steadied, as investors eyed another round of jobs data heading into Friday’s crucial March employment report.
Stocks ended modestly higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 adding around 0.11%, after a hotter-than-expected reading for private sector hiring from ADP’s National Employment report was partly offset by an ISM survey that showed muting price gains in the services sector.
ISM’s benchmark activity survey, which tracks activity in the economy’s biggest growth driver, suggested a solid but fading level of expansion in March matched with easing price pressures, the kind of ‘golidlocks’ reading that could signal a ‘soft landing’ later in the year.
“On balance, the U.S. economy looks to be in pretty good shape, with a strong job market supporting employment and wage gains,” said Comerica Bank’s chief economist Bill Adams.
“High interest rates and the cost of living are problems for many Americans, but inflation generally still seems to be moving lower in a two steps down, one step up process,” he added.
Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at an economics event in Stanford, meanwhile, added no new challenges to the central bank’s message of ‘patience’ on the timing of rate cuts, with investors still primed for the first Fed reduction since the pandemic emergency in March of 2020 later this spring.
The US. dollar index reflected some of that dovishness in overnight trading as it eased 0.14% against a basket of its global peers to trade at 104.092, while benchmark 2-year notes held steady at 4.685%.
The CME Group’s FedWatch now pegs the odds of a June cut at around 58.5%, with a follow-on cut likely coming in September.
Investors will now track both today’s reading of weekly jobless claims, slated for 8:30 am Eastern time, as well as tomorrow’s March employment report, which is expected to show 205,000 new hires and a headline unemployment rate of 3.9%.
On Wall Street, stocks are likely to remain muted ahead of tomorrow’s payroll report, with the market’s benchmark volatility gauge holding at $14.22, near to the lowest levels in five years.
Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 are priced for a 17 point opening bell gain, while those linked to Dow Jones Industrial Average are suggesting a 120 point advance.
The tech-focused Nasdaq is looking at a 98 point gain, with Tesla (TSLA) , Micron (MU) and Sofi Technologies (SOFI) three of the most-active movers in pre-market dealing.
In other markets, gold prices hit a fresh record high of $2,304.09 per ounce, taking its year-to-date gain to around 11.5%, while copper prices hit a 14-month high of $9,344 per ton on the London Metals Exchange.
In overseas markets, Europe’s Stoxx 600 was marked 0.09% higher on the session following S&P Global’s benchmark PMI reading that showed activity around the region expanded for the first time in nearly a year last month..
Paired with slowing inflation and a dovish ECB, which is likely to begin the first of four rate cuts in June, and stocks in the region could be primed for solid gains into the back half of the year.
Overnight in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.81% higher at 39,773.14 points as the yen held at a 34-year low of 151.80 against the U.S. dollar, while the regional MSCI ex-Japan benchmark rode last night’s gains on Wall Street to a 0.53% advance.
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