Transcript:
Caroline Woods
Joining me now to walk us through what the charts are telling us is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at Verified Investing. Gareth, great to have you on here.
Gareth Soloway
Oh, it’s wonderful to be here. Thank you so much for having me.
Caroline Woods
I’m excited to have you. And we typically talk about fundamentals here at the street, but I thought it’d be good to get your technical perspective. If you look at the price action, the S&P 500 is down less than 1% year to date, only about 3% away from all time highs, which is pretty remarkable given everything going on. Pretty resilient when you look at the charts, Gareth, are they telling the same story?
Gareth Soloway
What they’re telling me is that we’re in a phase of distribution right now, and there’s this amazing parallel channel that connects from the Covid lows in 2020 and goes through the bear market low, and then the Liberation Tariff 2025 sell off low. And then that same parallel when you take the parallel line and stretch it up, it goes right to the bull market high of 2021.
Gareth Soloway
And we tagged this line recently. And since then that’s when the S&P has gone through this kind of sideways choppy period. And I look at it like this I look at essentially this is where the distribution portion of the bull market takes place. And so you’re having institutional money slowly unloading. You continue to kind of hear the narrative that you’ve got to buy every dip from retail.
Gareth Soloway
And that’s forming what we call a rounded top on the S&P. And it should eventually lead to further downside. Now obviously we have lots of headlines out there. I’m sure we’ll discuss the oil scenario. What’s going on there. But eventually this is going to take its toll on the US economy and eventually bring corporate profits in. And I think that’s going to be the killer for the economy and for the stock market.
Caroline Woods
Okay, so the takeaway I’m hearing is we’re near a top and that there’s more downside in store. How much more downside are you talking.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah I’m looking at the initial pullback will take us back to the 2025 high pivot going back to last year. That initially will take us down about 10 to 12% from the all time highs. I then would expect a technical bounce as again, major former pivot highs usually yield those type of bounces. And then at that point we should retrace all the way back down to that lower, trendline that parallel on the S&P.
Gareth Soloway
And just looking at the charts myself here, that’s going to take us down to about 55 to 50, 600. So all in all, it’ll be about a 20% drawdown likely by year end.
Caroline Woods
Okay. So that’s not good news here. Doesn’t show the resilient market that we’ve been seeing. You mentioned oil at the top. What is going to send the market 20% lower. How much of that has to do with surging oil.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. And this is such an interesting scenario because, you know, going into this surge on oil, we already had gotten the PPI data print that was very hot. We had PC that was hot. And so you’re getting these inflation data points that are already moving higher than forecast. And now throw in the mix. Oh well by the way we have $90 crude oil.
Gareth Soloway
We were at 120. But essentially this is going to be another nail in the coffin of the inflation side. And so while I do think eventually oil comes down mostly due to demand destruction, I do think this is again, going to make it very tricky for a Federal Reserve, which is going to get a new fed chairman to essentially be aggressively lowering rates when the economy stumbles.
Gareth Soloway
And again, this creates that stagflation risk. And again, you could argue that we’re already in it. But with stagflation, if the fed lowers rates it just pushes up inflation, with minimal, stimulus to the economy. And I think that’s really what’s going to hit later this year is that you have high inflation. The fed can’t act to curb a weakening economy.
Gareth Soloway
And that’s going to really scare investors significantly.
Caroline Woods
Okay. So the good news is that oil is down about 6% this week trading around 8550 right now. The bad news is it’s still up about 30% this month. About what, almost 50% so far this year. So does that 20% downside that we could potentially see in the S&P 500 happen. It regardless of what happens with the oil.
Caroline Woods
Or is what happens if oil continues to tick lower.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. And I think unfortunately it probably doesn’t have a whole lot of ultimate impact because I think again, at some point the Straits of Hormuz will be opened again and oil will come in sharply. But I look at it like you have other factors working here. We already see a divergence in now. It used to be like two years ago, we were looking at middle income and higher income being the driving force with consumer spending.
Gareth Soloway
The lower income was really suffering. Now we’ve seen that middle income starting to suffer, and it’s really just the ultra wealthy and the wealthy that are keeping the the consumer spending, driving the U.S. economy. And then I would also argue that the AI mega-cap spend the 200 billion from this company, the 150 billion from that company that is really driving the GDP and the growth in the economy.
Gareth Soloway
And I do think that is a mini bubble, if not a large bubble, that eventually these companies will start pulling back on that spend. All of these will contribute, including the high price of oil, to a slowdown from the consumer more and more and the economy. And I think that’s where you see it. Regardless of oil. Oil is just one piece in this puzzle.
Gareth Soloway
That’s another negative. It’s not the only piece.
Caroline Woods
Okay. So does the 20% price in a potential recession and an AI bubble. Or could it actually get worse than.
Gareth Soloway
I think the it could get worse. It’s kind of, you know, the 20% drawdown by year end is more my base case. I do worry that if you have multiple factors here, I mean, if we see inflation, even as the economy slows more and more, and I think it’s important for the viewers to understand is usually when the economic slowdowns occur, inflation comes in because people aren’t spending as much.
Gareth Soloway
So there’s not as much price pressure, or demand. Right. But if we don’t see that inflation mitigate and start to come down, it’s going to make it continually harder and harder for the fed to kind of do their work to stimulate the economy. And I do think that’s where you have that worst case scenario, the bubble collapses.
Gareth Soloway
You get kind of a 99, 2000 type event. And then ultimately we see, the economy slip into recession as well. And that could send us much, much lower. But probably not until 2027. That would be kind of the the next year forecast.
Caroline Woods
Oh my goodness. So pretty bearish. So does that mean you wouldn’t be buying. Obviously you take a trader perspective. But I know you also have some long term positions. Does that mean you wouldn’t be buying any of these dips that we see that we’ve actually seen the market bounce back from even today? The market was lower and is already higher today.
Caroline Woods
You’re not necessarily putting money to work for longer term opportunities right now.
Gareth Soloway
And that’s the correct, correct thing. Right. So so for a longer term opportunities for things that I would be looking to buy for 12 months out or more, no. Absolutely not. But I do think again, in the shorter term for a swing traders perspective, there’s always opportunities. I mean, things like roadblocks, things that that have shown that they’ve had good earnings, but the software sell off is kind of caught them off guard and driven them lower.
Gareth Soloway
Those are names where, technically speaking, they’re ripe for a 2,025% bounce. But again, it wouldn’t be something that I would be looking at saying, oh, let me stick around in this for more than a month or two. I think you get the relief move, then you have to exit. Or at least that’s what I’m doing, waiting for that bigger dip to buy.
Caroline Woods
Okay, so tell us what’s on your wish list for that relief move. Other than roadblocks.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. And so so Oracle was obviously Oracle had very, very good numbers. So that was a great move. But again I look at these numbers and I and as a technical trader, what I’m really looking to do is gauge irrational behavior from investors. And so you had this incredible run in 2025 on Oracle. And then it collapses 50% where everyone is thinking oh my goodness they’re done.
Gareth Soloway
They’re they’re raising too much debt. And investor sentiment gets way way overdone to the bearish side. And so it’s almost like a pendulum swinging back and forth. And what I’m looking for is the extremes right. The extreme on the buy side is a short the extreme on the on the left side or the downside is a long and essentially waiting for it to come back to center center gravity.
Gareth Soloway
Right. And so as a trader, I’m always looking for these ridiculous moves. Like I was shorting oil Friday into Monday, because of the irrational panic, I was hearing targets of $250 per barrel. Any time you kind of pay attention to the the Main Street view and it’s starting to get ridiculous. This is also occurs in Bitcoin. That’s where I’m going to start to attack it.
Gareth Soloway
So these software plays have been beaten down. I even like Bitcoin down here I know we’ll talk about bitcoin but Bitcoin is so bearish. People are so bearish on that that asset I do think it’s due for a relief rally.
Caroline Woods
Yeah it’s had a little bit of a bounce this month up about 7.5% but still only trading right around 70,000 right now. What does the chart say. What’s the next level for Bitcoin that we should be watching.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. So so Bitcoin’s chart is really good right now. And I love that negative sentiment. Like I mentioned sentiment can be a great reversal indicator when it gets to ridiculous extremes. So essentially what we have is we had the reversal of the 60,000 low, that green candle on the chart. We’ve never seen a daily candle that closes below that green, and that creates what we call an inside bar pattern or a bullish consolidation pattern.
Gareth Soloway
And so I’m actually looking for Bitcoin to be breaking out here of that consolidation pattern and heading to about 80 to 85,000 over the next few weeks to month or so.
Caroline Woods
80 to 85,000 though is still significantly off the highs. When are we going to see Bitcoin at some of these lofty price targets that we’ve been hearing about from the bulls.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. And again you know that’s it is such a good question I honestly wish I knew that would be incredible. But I think I think for me because I’m bigger macro bearish and Bitcoin still resides generally as a risk asset. I have to be careful on that. So I think that you’re in this bear market cycle is technically still following the four year cycle, although people are trying to Pooh Pooh that at this point now because it’s obviously favoring the downside.
Gareth Soloway
But I think at this point I would say you got to give it a year or so, let it flush out, let the stock market at least come down that 20%, and then we start to see does it start to take on that kind of safe haven asset, which so many people have kind of proclaimed it to be.
Gareth Soloway
But so far it really hasn’t shown us that it’s that if we can start seeing that more and more, that would make me feel more comfortable about new all time highs in the near term. But right now, I’m just saying. All right, listen, let’s get this relief rally back to 80 to 85 and then we’ll take it from there.
Caroline Woods
Okay. And I also want to ask you about gold and silver. Both have had a really impressive year, although both substantially off the highs. Silver more so than gold. What are the charts showing there.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. So this is really interesting because we had this emotional surge. We saw it so much on silver. Silver just going massively higher and even to some extent on gold. And what we’ve seen now is that those have both corrected. And ever since that big drop from $120 per ounce on silver, down to about 80 or so, we’ve seen this inside consolidation before.
Gareth Soloway
It’s actually the inverse of what’s going on with Bitcoin. And what that tells me is that silver still has another leg lower. If it breaks 70 to 71, it triggers another leg lower to about the 50 to $54 level, which would be a massive correction from those recent highs. But at that point, there’s massive support going back to the highs from 1980 and also the highs from 2011.
Gareth Soloway
That’s where for me as an investor, I’m really eyeing as a longer term. All right. Starting to buy up silver there for gold. It would be 3500 would be that massive level. A lot of people tell you it’s never going back there. I say there’s never. So such a thing is never it’s always a possibility okay.
Caroline Woods
All right. So more downside in store there. But ultimately you’re bullish on gold in the long term I know right.
Gareth Soloway
Absolutely. Yeah I mean again you know we watch what the government’s doing. And again there’s no fiscal responsibility. The the age of Doge in the government was a few months and then it went back to spending even more money. So we don’t have fiscal responsibility. We still have a Federal Reserve that’s using interest rates and printing money.
Gareth Soloway
And I’m sure there’ll be new quantitative easing programs, in the next crisis. The M2 money supply will just continue to expand as well. And all of these things lead me to say, okay, if your outlook is five years or ten years, you know, number one, you got to be well diversified. But really, you want to be away from those fiat currencies.
Gareth Soloway
As they will just continue to decline. You can look at where the dollar was. If you value a dollar, what was a dollar in the 1920s versus where it is now, it’s lost 99% of its value. So again, diversification is obviously the key. But also making sure that you’re in the gold, the silvers on pullbacks. And even to be honest, I still believe Bitcoin will eventually mature into that safe haven, which it can be a diversifying factor against fiat currencies.
Caroline Woods
Okay. And just finally, Gareth, going back to your S&P 500 forecast, that’s pretty, downbeat. What would change your mind? Is there a, quick washout of oil prices? Is it a quick resolution to the war? What is it that would make you more bullish rather than bearish?
Gareth Soloway
Yeah, and I think that’s key because you know, something like a flush out of oil prices can absolutely occur. Like for instance if there was a resolution where all of a sudden the Straits of Hormuz opened up, we would see oil start flowing again. Prices would probably be down in the 70s again, per barrel. But I think that, again, the bigger issue is, is we’re hitting so many headwinds from levels of debt, from default rates on credit card and auto loans, from inflation continuing to really not get back to that 2% mandate that the fed has wanted, which is just telling you that it’s going to pressure the consumer longer term.
Gareth Soloway
And even if we look at what’s going on with companies with I mean, AI is going to be game changing, but it’s going to eliminate a massive amount of jobs. And we’re already seeing names like block layoff 50% of their workforce. Even Oracle said they were going to lay off thousands of people, based on getting into AI and continuing to use AI.
Gareth Soloway
And I think that’s a trend that’s going to continue. It’s making the workforce very, very nervous about their jobs, which is also making them kind of back off from spending. And so for me to get bullish on this market, that’s a great question. I would have to see fiscal responsibility, which would cause short term pain in the markets.
Gareth Soloway
And I’d have to see a bigger, you know, and again, you know, you’re asking me this question and I’m trying to think of, like, what on earth would change this outlook? And I guess, really it would have to come down to how do we get debt levels down while keeping the energy in the economy? And if we could figure that out.
Gareth Soloway
And maybe using AI is one way to do it, but I don’t know how that works. With the job layoffs, then I could get a little bit more bullish. I just think we need a natural wash out like almost any business cycle does have.
Caroline Woods
Okay. And we know that those do present buying opportunities. So glass right versus the glass half empty here. All right. Before we let you go we want to play a quick rapid fire game of this or that with you Gareth, are you ready?
Gareth Soloway
Yes.
Caroline Woods
All right. Here we go. Dow Nasdaq or S&P 500 from here.
Gareth Soloway
Right. The S&P 500.
Caroline Woods
Small caps finally breaking out or still lagging.
Gareth Soloway
Lagging.
Caroline Woods
Did the charts favor tech reclaiming leadership or energy and Defensives continuing to take over?
Gareth Soloway
I think energy and defensive. Defensive. And I’ll throw pharmaceuticals in there too.
Caroline Woods
Like gold breaking higher or nearing resistance.
Gareth Soloway
Near resistance but long term buy. Sorry, I’m doing more than one word answers.
Caroline Woods
All good. Bitcoin new highs this cycle. Yes or no?
Gareth Soloway
Oh not for years.
Caroline Woods
Gold or a bitcoin.
Gareth Soloway
Oh Bitcoin right now.
Caroline Woods
Gold or silver.
Gareth Soloway
Gold.
Caroline Woods
Oil topping out or another leg up.
Gareth Soloway
Topping out.
Caroline Woods
So short it or buy it.
Gareth Soloway
Yeah. I think you I mean, it’s already down from $120 a barrel, but if I had to pick on the next six months, oil will be lower. So short it.
Caroline Woods
Tesla setting up for a rebound are still in a downtrend.
Gareth Soloway
I think downtrend charts are telling us down further.
Caroline Woods
Nvidia consolidating for the next move or losing momentum losing momentum.
Gareth Soloway
All right.
Caroline Woods
So stock that has the strongest chart that you’ve seen.
Gareth Soloway
All. Oh my gosh. I’m going to go with I’m going to go with Roblox I mentioned earlier I love Roblox right here.
Caroline Woods
What’s one that the price action might look strong but the chart suggests otherwise.
Gareth Soloway
Oh I would say SanDisk is out.
Caroline Woods
So you would be a seller of SanDisk here?
Gareth Soloway
I would say I’m short SanDisk myself right here.
Caroline Woods
Okay. What’s one pattern you’re seeing in the market that investors are missing?
Gareth Soloway
I think this bigger parallel on the S&P. I mean everyone thinks the markets can never go down. And and ultimately we are at the high end of a parallel. And these parallels are incredibly powerful.
Caroline Woods
Price target for the S&P by year end.
Gareth Soloway
5600.
Caroline Woods
Recession this year. Yes or no.
Gareth Soloway
And and a Q4. Yes.
Caroline Woods
More rate cuts this year. Yes or no?
Gareth Soloway
Yes.
Caroline Woods
How many?
Gareth Soloway
I’m going to go with for.
Caroline Woods
Wow and plays into your recession forecast. Not a this or that question. Best advice for traders and investors with your S&P 5600 price target?
Gareth Soloway
Being in cash, even with the dollar, losing ground is still better than watching the markets drop 20%.
Caroline Woods
Garrett Soloway Chief Market Strategist, Verified Investing thanks so much. Despite your downbeat outlook, we always appreciate you chatting with us.
Gareth Soloway
Thank you so much. And always remember, folks, drawdowns are good buying opportunities. That’s the key.
Caroline Woods
All right. Ending on a positive note. Thanks, Garrett.
Gareth Soloway
Thank you.
