It began as a quiet practice — something steeped in patience, tradition, and calm. The kind of thing meant to be savored, not shared in 15-second clips.
But somewhere between the frothing, the filtering, and the soft green swirl, the internet found it. And like everything TikTok touches, it got loud fast.
Related: Lululemon faces rising challenge from copycat/dupe brands
Influencers fell in love with it. Cafes cashed in. Videos showing off vibrant colors, perfect pours, and “clean girl” morning routines flooded feeds. What was once a centuries-old ritual suddenly became part of the aesthetic.
I’ll admit it — I love myself a matcha green tea latte from Starbucks. As basic as it may be, it’s a go-to comfort drink. And now I can’t help but wonder…could Starbucks actually run out?
Matcha’s popularity has made the trendy tea hard to come by.
Image source: Shutterstock
Matcha: From sacred to sold out
The drink in question is matcha — and Japan’s supply is under serious strain.
In the famed Uji region, known for producing some of the highest-grade matcha in the world, tea shops are putting limits on how much customers can buy.
Tourists are lining up. Online demand is spiking. Even in the U.S. and Europe, retailers are struggling to keep shelves stocked.
Related: Nike rival hits sneaker giant where it hurts
The surge in popularity isn’t new. Matcha has been climbing the trend ladder for years. But over the past few months, thanks in part to a viral boom on TikTok, demand has exploded past anything producers expected.
“We opened in 2021 and didn’t see that many international visitors at first,” one Kyoto tea shop owner told The Guardian. “Now it’s completely different. It’s matcha, matcha, matcha.”
Japan’s matcha production has seen significant growth, rising from 1,471 tons in 2010 to 4,176 tons in 2023 according to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. However, over half of this production is now exported to meet international demand, particularly in North America, where the market is projected to grow from $1.17 billion in 2023 to $2.43 billion by 2030.
Despite these increases, production challenges persist, with 2023’s output only reaching 78% of 2008 levels due to an aging farming population and limited successors.
Tariffs further strain a struggling matcha supply chain
This isn’t the first time social media has driven a product toward scarcity — boba, sriracha, and even cottage cheese have had their moments. But matcha is different.
Unlike mass-produced snacks or soft drinks, matcha relies on a delicate and labor-intensive process that can’t be rushed.
The leaves are shade-grown, hand-picked, steamed, dried, stone-ground — and often harvested just once a year. The best grades come from farms that have followed the same steps for generations. Increasing production is not as simple as just turning a dial.
Compunding the challenge of matcha production is the 10% universal tariff rate President Trump has levied on Japanese exports to the U.S. A higher 24% tariff rate, currently paused until early July, stands to make Japanese matcha even more expensive this summer.
“High tariffs could not only threaten our ability to keep prices fair for our customers, but also undermine the entire ecosystem of small-scale Japanese tea producers who rely on export markets like the U.S. to survive,” said Andre Fasciola, founder and CEO of Matcha Kari, a Tucson, Arizona-based matcha importer.
According to the Matcha Kari website, tariffs could cause matcha prices to jump by 20% or more, making authentic, ceremonial-grade matcha less accessible and affordable. Consumers may also begin to see lower-quality matcha alternatives from outside Japan pop up on store shelves.
Social demand moves at the speed of trends. Traditional farming doesn’t. And with tariffs exerting new pressure, market forces are colliding in a way that could leave retailers and consumers scrambling.
Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast
