If your grocery bill has felt heavier lately, your morning coffee is part of the reason. The average price of ground roast coffee hit $9.46 per pound in February, a new all-time high, according to Bloomberg, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
That is a 31% jump from a year earlier, making coffee one of the biggest drivers of food inflation right now. And the people tracking these prices say there is not much relief in sight.
The surge is not a blip. CNBC reported the current run-up is the steepest and most sustained since the BLS began tracking coffee prices in 1980. Whether you are buying ground beans at the grocery store or ordering a latte on your way to work, the cost has gone up. Significantly.
What started the coffee price surge
The roots go back to supply. Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s two largest coffee producers, both took serious hits from bad weather in 2024.
Brazil was hammered by drought and heavy rain that damaged arabica harvests. Vietnam saw typhoons flatten robusta plantations. Together, these two countries supply the majority of the world’s coffee.
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The damage sent arabica futures skyrocketing from roughly $2 a pound in early 2024 to an all-time high of $4.41 a pound by February 2025, per industry analysts. That is a price level not seen since 1977. When futures spike, retail prices follow, usually with a delay of several months.
Then came tariffs. Trump’s tariff policies, including a 46% rate on Vietnam, added a fresh layer of cost pressure on every roaster and retailer buying from those markets. Less than 1% of coffee consumed in the U.S. is grown domestically. There is essentially no way to source around it.
Where consumers are feeling the coffee price crunch
The price increases have worked their way through the entire supply chain. Ground coffee, pods, instant, and canned brands have all climbed at the grocery store.
Cafe prices are moving, too. The average cost of a regular cup of coffee rose from $3.46 to $3.57 in the year ending October 2025, per CNBC, citing Toast menu data. That sounds small, but it reflects how hard it is for shops to pass on costs without driving customers away.
Starbucks (SBUX) has been threading that needle carefully. CEO Brian Niccol pledged a price freeze through 2025 but said in an interview with CBS News the company cannot rule out hikes in 2026.
He called any increase a “last resort.” That language matters, because more than 70% of consumers in a UBS survey already said high prices were the top reason they planned to visit Starbucks less.
What is pushing coffee prices higher?
- Brazil weather damage: Drought and flooding hurt arabica harvests throughout 2024.
- Vietnam typhoons: Weather events flattened robusta plantations and tightened a key supply chain.
- U.S. tariffs: A 46% rate on Vietnam and other levies added direct cost pressure.
- Futures contract lag: Bean price spikes take months to reach store shelves.
- Rising operating costs: Freight, packaging, and labor are all up for roasters.
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What this means for inflation
Coffee’s 31% surge makes it one of the more striking inflation stories of early 2026.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service predicts nonalcoholic beverage prices will climb another 5.2% this year, with coffee as a primary driver.
As coffee prices climb, at-home brewing is up, and discount and store-brand coffee is gaining ground at the expense of premium labels. The $5 latte is becoming the kind of purchase people think twice about.
Will coffee price pressures ease?
Possibly, but not quickly. Brazil’s 2026 harvest is expected to be strong, and Colombia reported its most productive coffee harvest in more than three decades in its most recent cycle. If the weather holds, analysts expect some relief in bean prices during the second half of the year.
The catch is that cheaper beans at origin do not translate to cheaper coffee on shelves overnight. Roasters lock in prices through futures contracts months in advance. Bloomberg noted that retail prices are holding at record levels even as bean futures have eased, which shows just how sticky food inflation can be once it takes hold.
The $9.46 a pound average is a record. Nobody is calling a peak yet.
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