Jensen Huang is not shy about his beliefs, or skepticism.
The Nvidia CEO, who made Elon Musk and Larry Ellison “beg” for more AI GPUs, argued that quantum computing remains unreliable.
Huang said that “very useful quantum computers” are probably two decades down the road.
“If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that’d probably be on the early side. If you said 30 is probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it,” Huang said during the company’s CES event in early January.
Meanwhile, he said that AI is advancing at an “incredible pace.”
Related: 5 quantum computing stocks investors are targeting in 2025
Three years ago, Huang said similar things that the technology is realistically two to three decades away at 2022’s BW Businessworld.
Nvidia’s dominance in AI computing makes Huang’s forecasts carry extra weight and can move stocks. After his speech, quantum stocks plunged into free fall.
Some names sank — Rigetti Computing (RGTI) was down 45%, IonQ (IONQ) lost 39%, and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) tumbled 36% during the following session on Jan. 8.
But in the following week, those stocks rebounded.
So, what if Huang is wrong?
D-Wave Quantum’s CEO Alan Baratz said Huang is “dead wrong” about quantum computing.
TheStreet/D-Wave Systems
The Quantum thing explained in simple words
Think of a regular computer as a librarian, looking through books one by one to find the answer. Quantum computers, on the other hand, can look through all the books at once.
Regular computers use binary electrical signals to represent 1s or 0s, like switching between on (1) or off (0).
Quantum computers use qubits, which are like magic switches that can be both 1 and 0 at the same time. This means quantum computers can test many possibilities at once instead of one at a time.
“This means quantum computing may revolutionize our ability to solve problems that are hard to address with even the largest supercomputers.” the U.S. Department of Energy said.
Related: IonQ CEO revamps quantum computing forecast for 2025 after shares tumble
D-Wave Quantum’s CEO Alan Baratz said Huang is “dead wrong” about quantum computing.
“The reason why he’s dead wrong is because D-Wave has commercial quantum computers that customers are using to run their business operations today,” Baratz told TheStreet.com. “When he says there is no quantum computer that will be able to do anything useful for 15 to 30 years, he is clearly out of touch with reality.”
But why is Huang so harsh on quantum?
Veteran Wall Street trader Stephen Guilfoyle saw opportunities in quantum following the plunge, highlighting that Huang stated that “just about every quantum computing company in the world” works with Nvidia.
He raises the possibility that “Huang, who can barely keep up with AI-focused demand, just does not need the next big thing to explode just yet … and does not want these players to shop elsewhere.”
Gil Luria, head of technology at DA Davidson, said that Huang’s comments were “somewhat self-serving.” Luria expects quantum computing to be a big tech factor in five years, which could be an “existential threat” to Nvidia’s GPUs, Investor’s Daily Business reported.
Markus Pflitsch, founder and CEO of Terra Quantum AG, also acknowledges that Huang’s statements may be aimed at protecting Nvidia’s core business, which indeed focuses on classical computing.
What could be next for the quantum trend?
The revelation of DeepSeek has probably made many believers rethink the future economics of AI. Will Nvidia’s growth on high-revenue AI chips continue to thrive?
The actual impact on Nvidia won’t be known for probably two quarters, Wall Street’s veteran trader Bob Byrne wrote on Jan. 30.
Related: Fund manager who predicted Nvidia’s selloff makes a bold move
“Let’s wait for the earnings/revenue revisions or downward capex revisions from Nvidia’s largest customers before we write the company’s obituary,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, Byrne is looking at future opportunities in quantum computing. He had successfully predicted the quantum stock rally the following week after Huang’s words.
Byrne mentioned four quantum stocks to watch: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) , D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) , IonQ Inc., (IONQ,) and BTQ Technologies.
“Like any trader, I don’t need to understand the technology before I trade the stocks. But if Jensen Huang is wrong, and quantum is here to stay, or the late 2024 quantum bubble reinflates, I want to know as much as possible,” he said.
Investment firm Needham has significantly raised its price targets on several quantum computing companies.
The firm lifted its target for D-Wave Quantum from $2.25 to $8.50, IonQ from $18 to $54, and Rigetti Computing from $2 to $17, maintaining buy ratings on all three, thefly.com reported on Jan. 27
According to Needham, the awareness of quantum computing’s potential has been raised. Since Sept. 30, 2024, the stock prices of quantum computing firms have surged severalfold, reflecting a recognition that the technology could disrupt a meaningful portion of the $1 trillion computing market over the next decade.
However, investors might need to think long-term.
More 2025 stock market forecasts
Veteran trader who correctly picked Palantir as top stock in ‘24 reveals best stock for ‘255 quantum computing stocks investors are targeting in 2025Goldman Sachs picks top sectors to own in 2025Every major Wall Street analyst’s S&P 500 forecast for 2025
“Those who are making an investment and think they can flip it in a year or two at a large profit, will be disappointed,” said Global Quantum Intelligence (GQI) in a research report.
“The quantum technology is difficult, but the industry is making steady progress and we are starting to see a trickle of commercial applications from early adopters start to come out. The numbers will be small at first, but will steadily grow,” the report said.
Related: Veteran fund manager issues dire S&P 500 warning for 2025
