Checking out from a grocery store used to be a relatively simple thing. You waited in line, then a person scanned your items, you paid — maybe even by writing a check — and then went on your way.
Some stores had 10-items-or-less lines, and the closest thing to a checkout controversy would be when someone tried to sneak through with 11, maybe even 12, items.
Now, many retailers rely heavily on self-checkout, and the technology has created growing problems tied to theft, customer frustration, and reliability.
“While 86% of consumers use self-checkout machines, statistics show theft increases by up to 65% at self-checkout compared to a traditional checker,” according to data from a January Capital One survey.
The survey suggested that while many consumers prefer self-checkout, retailers continue to grapple with elevated theft concerns tied to the technology.
- 43% of consumers prefer self-checkout over traditional staffed registers.
- More than 36 million Americans have stolen from a self-checkout kiosk.
- 27% of consumers admit to using self-checkout to steal; 55% of them plan to re-offend.
- The North American self-checkout systems market is worth an estimated $2.54 billion as of 2025; projections indicate it will exceed $5 billion by 2030.
Self-checkout is not universally popular, but it’s used widely, as Capital One showed that 96% of grocery stores offer self-checkout.
Costco, Target, and Walmart, however, have all scaled back self-checkout, and while that may prevent theft, it’s not the only way to do that, according to Bill Miller, president of retail tech provider GK Software USA.
He believes that self-checkout is too valuable to drop and that AI can solve the problems Costco, Walmart, Target, and many others have experienced.
Costco, Walmart, and Target cut back on self-checkout
A May 6 RetailWire article suggested that retailers give varying reasons for rolling back self-checkout.
“While Walmart itself is stating that customer and associate feedback, as well as a desire to improve the checkout experience, are behind the move, many analysts are suggesting that rampant shoplifting and checkout theft are more likely drivers,” the website reported.
Costco has largely removed self-checkout from its warehouse clubs, but has been testing some technology that offers a faster variation on clerk-assisted checkout.
“In the warehouses, we’re achieving meaningful improvements in the speed of checkout, employee productivity, both as a result of our mobile wallet enhancements, pharmacy pay ahead, and the rollout of employee pre-scan technology,” Costco CEO Ron Vachris shared during his chain’s second-quarter earnings call.
Costco also has plans for a new variation on self-checkout.
“We’re also piloting automated pay stations that will allow members to pay for their pre-scanned orders seamlessly with an average transaction time of around 8 seconds,” he added.
Target addressed theft at self-checkout by removing some self-checkout lanes and limiting others.
“Starting March 17, Target has rolled out Express Self-Checkout at most of its nearly 2,000 stores nationwide. These lanes are limited to 10 items or fewer,” Progressive Grocer reported back in 2024.
AI could be the anti-theft answer
Miller, writing an opinion piece for Retail Touchpoints, believes that artificial intelligence (AI), can solve the self-checkout theft problem.
“What’s needed is a system that continuously learns and improves, intervenes during the transaction, operates consistently, generates accurate alerts that associates can trust, and adds no meaningful friction for honest customers. Computer vision addresses all of these directly,” he said.
It’s a system that can address the biggest problem in self-checkout — consumer intent.
“Machine learning models trained on large volumes of transaction video streams analyze that feed to understand human behavior at self-checkout and recognize items. This technology distinguishes a completed scan from a missed one, a legitimate bag placement from an item that bypasses the scanner, or a premium product being rung up as a cheaper alternative,” he wrote.
These models do not rely on barcodes or weight to detect fraudulent behavior. They observe physical behaviors such as hand position, item trajectory, and where objects move relative to the scanning zone, and then flag deviations in real time.
Analysts don’t think self-checkout is going anywhere
While Target, Costco, and Walmart have scaled back self-checkout, the technology offers too much benefit to retailers for them to abandon it.
“Reports of the death of self-checkout are greatly exaggerated,” GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders wrote on RetailWire.
He believes that retailers will eventually figure out a working model.
“While there has been a selective scaling back and increased restrictions, such as item limits, a lot of stores still have self-checkouts. That said, shrink — which is both deliberate and accidental — is still an issue. If AI can monitor and safeguard against this, it will be of huge benefit,” he added.
Saunders, however, is skeptical that Miller’s AI solution is the answer.
“I still think the best solution is RFID-type checkouts, as Uniqlo has, which negate the need for item scanning altogether,” he shared.
Frank Margolis, a global retail expert, sees AI as having some drawbacks as well.
“The pull-back in SCO is almost entirely shrink-related…. For CV/AI solutions to actually impact the growing shrink problem, the question is, what amount of latency is the general public willing to accept? Cloud-based lag is likely too long, so on-prem servers or edge compute is necessary to keep the lines moving,” he posted.
Paula Rosenblum, a top retail analyst and influencer, thinks consumers need to be incentivized to abandon traditional checkout.
“Self-checkout has a limit on the number of people who want it. It moves from laziness to being offended at taking someone’s job. Maybe if it were like the old self-service gas stations, where you paid a few cents less?” she wrote on RetailWire.
She remains a skeptic.
“There are a lot of issues. Shrink is the big one. Failure of tech is another. This is not new news. I’m surprised it keeps coming back as a growing technology,” she added.
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