With Nvidia‘s (NVDA) annual GPU Technology Conference (GTC) just days away, Wells Fargo is sending a clear message to investors: Do not wait.
Analyst Aaron Rakers, who ranks in the top 1% of Wall Street analysts by performance, reiterated his overweight rating on Nvidia shares this week and maintained his $265 target. With the stock trading around $178, that implies roughly 49% upside from current levels. His message to investors was direct: “We’re NVDA buyers ahead of the event.”
GTC 2026 runs March 16 through 19 in San Jose. It is not just a product showcase. Historically, it has been a reliable stock catalyst.
Nvidia has outperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by about 30% in the three months following GTC, according to Rakers, with individual-year gains ranging from roughly 12% to 45%.
What Rakers is watching at GTC
The Wells Fargo analyst has a specific list of catalysts he expects could move the stock during and after the conference.
At the top is a pipeline update. Nvidia’s committed AI infrastructure pipeline has already surpassed $500 billion, with visibility stretching into 2027.
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Rakers estimates the company has recognized roughly $240 billion to $250 billion of that opportunity since Blackwell began shipping in late 2024. An update pushing the pipeline figure to $600 billion or more would be a meaningful positive signal for investors.
He is also watching for details on Kyber, Nvidia’s next-generation high-density rack architecture, and how early lessons from the GB200 NVL72 rollout are shaping the platform’s development.
Updates on Rubin CPX, the GPU built for long-context AI inference expected to launch in late 2026, will also be closely followed.
Key GTC catalysts Rakers is tracking
- Pipeline update: A revision above $600 billion in committed AI infrastructure, which would signal accelerating demand visibility into 2027
- Kyber architecture: Details on Nvidia’s next high-density rack design and GB200 NVL72 learnings
- Rubin CPX: Architecture specifics and positioning for long-context AI inference workloads
- Groq integration: Whether Nvidia’s Groq IP agreement leads to standalone inference chips or folds into future GPU roadmaps
- Custom silicon: Any announcements around dedicated chips for hyperscalers such as OpenAI, following Wall Street Journal reporting on an inference chip in development
The $600 billion capex wall behind the thesis
Rakers’ bullish stance is not built on conference speculation alone. It rests on one of the largest capital spending waves in corporate history.
The five largest hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle — are on track to spend over $600 billion on infrastructure in 2026, a 36% jump from 2025, according to CreditSights estimates.
Roughly 75% of that, about $450 billion, goes directly to AI infrastructure. GPUs sit at the center of nearly all of it.
Every major hyperscaler has doubled down publicly. Amazon committed to $200 billion in capex for 2026. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have all signaled budgets well above their 2025 totals, with Alphabet alone guiding $175 to $185 billion.
Goldman Sachs had projected hyperscaler capex could exceed $500 billion, Investing.com noted. They were too conservative. For two straight years, Wall Street’s capex estimates came in too low, with actual spending exceeding consensus by more than 50% each time.
Nvidia captures roughly 90% of AI accelerator spending, according to industry estimates. That concentration means the capex wave flows almost directly to Nvidia’s revenue line.
Joan Cros/NurPhoto via Getty Images
What the Nvidia numbers look like from here
When Wells Fargo raised its price target to $265 from $220 in November 2025, Rakers revised his revenue forecasts significantly higher. He now models Nvidia generating $209 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026, rising to $302 billion in FY27 and $383 billion in FY28.
His earnings per share estimates follow a similar trajectory: $4.61 for FY26, $7.05 for FY27 and $8.90 for FY28.
The $265 target is anchored to roughly 30 times calendar year 2027 earnings, which Rakers argues is justified given Nvidia’s sustained 50%-plus growth trajectory and competitive position.
Rakers is far from alone on Wall Street. According to TipRanks data, 38 other analysts currently rate Nvidia a buy, with one hold and one sell. The average consensus price target sits at $271.89, implying the broader analyst community sees even more upside than Rakers’ $265 figure. The overall rating is a strong buy.
What could go wrong for NVDA stock
The bull case is not without risks. New U.S. chip export restrictions are reportedly under consideration, per a TechCrunch report this week. If tighter controls limit Nvidia’s ability to sell into non-allied markets, near-term revenue estimates would need to come down.
There is also the broader question of whether the AI capex cycle sustains. Spending $600 billion annually on infrastructure while generating roughly $25 billion in direct AI services revenue is a gap that eventually has to close.
If enterprise monetization does not materialize at the pace hyperscalers are assuming, the cycle could slow faster than consensus expects.
For now, though, Rakers and the majority of Wall Street are betting the opposite. The spending commitments are locked in, the Blackwell production ramp is running ahead of schedule, and GTC arrives in eight days with a product roadmap that could extend Nvidia’s lead further.
That combination, in Rakers’ view, makes the current price a buying opportunity rather than a risk.
