Contrary to common belief in the last two decades, the U.S. is not in decline militarily, economically, or technologically — at least according to GZERO Media founder Ian Bremmer.
In a speech delivered at the AICPA’s annual conference, Bremmer detailed significant global geopolitical shifts and their implications, focusing on the role of the U.S. and the emergence of new populist trends.
Bremmer, who also founded political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, noted a major geopolitical shift over the past 20 years as the U.S. became asymmetrically more powerful than its allies such as Europe, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
These allies, he said, have weakened demographically, technologically, and due to underinvestment in defense and productivity.
“The United States is actually not in decline,” he said. “Not militarily, not economically, certainly not technologically, and in…an increasingly dangerous global order. The U.S. is in by far the most stable part of it geographically.”
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In fact, he noted that, currently, only two countries are technologically dominant: China in post-carbon energy (nuclear, solar, EVs, supply chains, critical minerals) and the U.S. in artificial intelligence (hyperscalers, chips, compute).
At present, the primary driver of global uncertainty and geopolitical volatility that “feels so dangerous to people is that the most powerful country in the world has decided that they, we, do not want to play the leadership role by the old rules.”
From Bremmer’s perspective, that means saying “no” to U.S.-led collective security, a global trade system shaped by Washington, and American-backed international law and democratic values.
And this change, he said, “profoundly impacts U.S.-aligned democracies that relied on this leadership.”
The U.S. decided that it does not want to play the leadership role by the old rules, said Ian Bremmer.
Image source: Eric Tompkins on Unsplash
Middle East policy amid budding war
Before reports emerged of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, Bremmer said the U.S. was strategically using leverage to push Iran toward a nuclear enrichment deal – a key priority for President Trump.
Bremmer noted Iran’s weakened position, citing setbacks involving Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad, and Hamas, along with Gulf States’ support for a deal, as factors making an agreement more likely. He acknowledged the possibility of Israeli military action if Iran delays but maintained that a deal remains the expected outcome.
Trump’s recent warning of “even more brutal” attacks if Iran refuses a deal may further increase pressure on Tehran.
Trump’s influence and approach to US exceptionalism
According to Bremmer, Trump’s success stems from identifying “exactly what the pain points are for the bulk of the American population: ending wars, achieving fair trade, and securing borders.
“His positions on these issues,” Bremmer said, “are more popular than the Democrats.”
To be fair, Bremmer said Trump has “almost no interest in the specifics of policy.”
And unlike in his first term, President Trump now appoints individuals fiercely loyal to him, not necessarily to the Republican party or establishment, Bremmer said. “They may be great, really smart, they may not, but they are going to be fiercely first and foremost loyal to [Trump],” said Bremmer.
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The president also relies heavily on his own judgment, believes he is always right, externalizes blame, and is less concerned about market reactions. “He’s completely convinced that he’s right on these issues,” said Bremmer. “If things go wrong, it is someone else. It is not him.”
What’s more, his top advisers are much less likely to tell him when they disagree, leading to a lack of critical feedback.
“Trump is less concerned about market reaction to what he is doing than he was [in his] first term,” said Bremmer. “So, he’s more willing to see a longer period of economic impact.” And “he’s much less aware that anything he’s doing might be problematic because he’s not hearing it from his top advisers.”
The new global driver is the U.S., the most powerful country, willing to use its leverage, not lead historically, and unconcerned about whether it causes pain in other parts of the world.
Global trade and alliances reset
That same approach is also reshaping global trade dynamics. Bremmer noted, for instance, that the International Trade Court’s ruling against Trump’s broad use of emergency tariff powers under AIPA will prolong uncertainty in global trade – something “markets hate” — as the case likely heads to the Supreme Court, with a decision expected by late fall or early winter.
Regardless of court rulings, Bremmer predicted that blended U.S. global tariffs will rise to 12-15% (1940s levels), a cost not yet priced into markets.
He said this would lead to supply chain disruptions, potentially resulting in empty shelves at retailers over the summer, causing panic and increasing trade tensions.
“Most of the things out there that we buy are not yet affected by the supply chain challenge you’re about to see,” said Bremmer. “They will over the course of the summer. You won’t get stuff on Amazon Prime. You’ll go to Walmart. A lot of shelves will be empty. That will cause a level of panic and unease and anxiety.”
Bremmer also noted that Mexico is capitulating to U.S. demands on issues like fentanyl and illegal immigration due to its heavy reliance on the U.S. economy (over 80% of exports to the U.S.).
And Canada, despite a new politically consequential prime minister, is structurally built for North-South trade with the U.S., making a significant pivot away difficult due to its infrastructure and provincial power.
Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to continue
Bremmer said Trump has realized “he’s not getting a deal” with Putin.
As a result, he’s now prepared to continue supplying intelligence and weapons to Ukraine.
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Meanwhile, European allies are ramping up defense spending – NATO targeting 5% of GDP, the UK at 3.5%, and Canada at 2% — largely under pressure from Trump. “NATO will be stronger,” Bremmer said.
The downside: the war isn’t ending anytime soon. Sanctions on Russia will remain, and Bremmer warned that Moscow is likely to escalate its attacks, “killing more Ukrainians.”
U.S.-China relations bent, but not yet broken
According to Bremmer, recent interactions, including a call between Trump and Xi Jinping, are stabilizing but do not represent a breakthrough. “I wouldn’t call it positive,” said Bremmer. “I would call it stabilizing. It’s less negative than what we’ve seen for the last few months.”
The U.S., he said, remains focused on export controls for semiconductors and pressuring allies to choose the U.S. over China in advanced technology.
But China is in a “wait and see” mode, believing that U.S. actions (undermining allies, making itself less attractive for high-skilled immigration) will ultimately benefit China long-term.
“They know that this is going to cause more economic pain to China than the U.S.,” said Bremmer. “But they also feel like they are politically stronger. They’re more patient. They can wait the Americans out.”
So Bremmer’s bottom line: “I do not believe that we are set for a U.S.-China breakthrough.”
Bond market stability amid Fed interest rate uncertainty
While not a bond market expert, Bremmer said Trump’s quick reversal on firing Fed Chair Powell shows that the bond market remains a “clear red line” for Trump, given the potential for severe fallout.
“The one area where Trump was hit in the face hard by everyone and backed off completely was when he said, ‘I’m thinking about firing Fed chair Powell,’” said Bremmer. “I think that that does say something – that even in this environment, where Trump is more willing to push and is getting less information, there still are some clear red lines. And this is a clear red line.”
U.S. debt and economy are manageable
Despite high debt, Bremmer said the U.S. benefits from its reserve currency status, technological dominance, and military umbrella, making it difficult for other countries to “derisk” from the U.S.
Bremmer suggested that in the age of exploding AI, short-term spending as much as humanly possible might be market and geopolitically positive for the U.S., provided it’s spent wisely (e.g., chips, education).
While historically overdue for a recession (averaging every seven years post-WWII), the massive Covid stimulus and the unprecedented growth of AI capabilities (doubling every six months) could fundamentally alter economic cycles, making traditional definitions of recession less applicable, said Bremmer.
Manufacturing jobs and AI; it’s not the 1950s
It is “inconceivable,” said Bremmer, for the U.S. to return to being a manufacturing economy as it once was. “The U.S. is not a manufacturing economy anymore,” he said.
Any new manufacturing will be driven by robotics, automation, and AI, requiring far fewer workers, which could ironically put more pressure on existing manufacturing labor.
This shift is part of broader “incoherent, angry, anxious” movements that will focus on economic displacement.
China-Taiwan outlook frayed but stable
Bremmer suggested that likelihood of war in the near term is “very low.” China aims to appear “more responsible and more stable” while the U.S. undermines its own allies.
However, China will continue to squeeze Taiwan’s leadership with military exercises and economic sanctions, said Bremmer. This remains a long-term concern, but not for the immediate future.
Trump and Musk’s political futures necessary truce
Bremmer stated definitively that Trump has never said he will run again and is not running again, despite media questions.
Bremmer also believes Elon Musk understands he “damaged his interests” by fighting with Trump, and “that getting into a long-term fight with Trump was unsustainable.”
And Musk, according to Bremmer, is expected to support Trump’s political goals and candidates in the midterms.
Midterm elections and Democratic Party chaos
The Democratic Party is not expected to settle on a coherent platform until closer to 2028 due to a broad range of views among potential leaders, according to Bremmer.
And the midterm elections will be a decision about Trump. While Trump is currently doing well on immigration and the economy, his economic standing is expected to weaken over the summer due to trade issues, said Bremmer.
What’s more, a much stronger push to the economic populist left is anticipated, a phenomenon not seen since the post-Gilded Age.
Populism captures center stage
According to Bremmer, current populism from the right is driven by disaffected industrial working-class men in former industrialized places like Appalachia, the Rust Belt, and former East Germany, focusing on manufacturing and anti-immigrant sentiment.
Bremmer predicts an enormous spike of populism from the left in the next electoral cycle, driven by college-educated, urban, white-collar professionals losing jobs due to AI.
This movement, he said, will be more progressive on cultural issues but strongly opposed to the “deep state,” major corporations, banks, and technology companies.
