How do Americans cope with the everyday pressures of corporate jobs, parenting, and the ongoing stress of an economy in flux?
The answer is simple: many crack open a bottle of wine when they get home for the day.
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Americans consumed 899 million gallons of wine in 2023 alone, according to the Wine Institute, averaging 2.68 gallons per person. America is currently the world’s top wine market.
Despite what seems like a titanic amount of vino being bought and consumed, however, people are actually drinking less of it than historically they have in a very long time.
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In 2024, The International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) reported that worldwide consumption of wine fell to its lowest level in more than 60 years.
The OIV also had more troubling stats to share. It reports that the consumer is now paying an average of 30% more for a bottle of wine than in 2019-2020. Since that time, overall consumption has plummeted by 12%.
Canada’s decision in early March to stop stocking U.S.-made liquors, wines included, also hit the industry hard. This comes in reaction to President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico.
Now, on top of those problems, winemakers are speaking up about a new issue that could prove catastrophic for the industry.
Wine fans may have some difficult choices to make in the coming year.
Image source: Gillenea/AFP via Getty Images
The future of wine costs
Like many other increasingly costly goods that worry consumers, wine is on track to get much more expensive in the near future.
Part of that is about the way wine is packaged. For instance, wine corks are currently imported from Portugal and Spain. Once the 90-day tariff pause is up, should tariffs go into effect as planned, winemakers will face the 10% European tariff in order to get the corks they need for their products.
The bottles that hold wine are a much bigger problem. Many vintners get their bottles from China, which is facing a 145% tariff. This will force many businesses to turn to a new source of bottles.Â
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Some makers also import their bottles from Mexico, which could be facing a 25% tariff in the future.
Perhaps the biggest issue for winemakers, however, is barrels. French oak barrels are the preferred option due to the flavor profile they lend wines. These often cost $1,000 or more, making them unaffordable for smaller wineries.
“Not having French oak will drastically change the flavor profile of many wines,” said Adolfo Hernandez, owner of Monroy Wines in Sonoma County, Calif., in an NPR interview.
How much will wine cost in the future?
While a firm answer to this question is still up in the air, it’s safe to say that wine drinkers might want to brace themselves for impact. In the aftermath of Trump’s tariffs, Canada retaliated by pulling American-made wines from its store shelves and restaurants. The incident left a sour taste in Canadians’ mouths, and they have taken to social media to show photos of empty store shelves.
The move presents a huge problem for the wine industry. California Wine Institute’s president and CEO Robert Koch said in a statement that “Canada is the single most important export market for U.S. wines with retail sales in excess of $1.1 billion annually.”
While no winemakers have announced price hikes just yet, their possible necessity continues to loom.
“Where we are in our industry is bated curiosity mixed with fear, and trying to figure out an opportunity,” Virginia Wineries Association President George Hodson told Axios.
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