The House of Mouse may seem like the unshakable king of media to many (yes, even despite the debacle around its “woke” take on Snow White), but despite how long it’s been in the game, a new competitor has arrived to steal the crown.
In a recent note, MoffettNathanson principal analyst Michael Nathanson revealed who Disney (DIS) is losing its long-standing lead to – and it’s quite the bombshell.
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“YouTube has the potential to become the central aggregator for all things professional video, positioning itself to capture a share of the $85 billion consumer Pay TV market and the ~$30 billion streaming ex. Netflix market in the US,” Nathanson wrote.
Related: Disney raises eyebrows with controversial policy changes
Nathanson also foresees good news for Alphabet’s (GOOGL) YouTube regarding its subscription business.
“Looking ahead, we expect subscription revenue growth to continue to outpace advertising, driven primarily by subscriber additions,” he said. “However, with no further price increases factored into our model, we anticipate a gradual slowdown in subscription growth as net additions moderate, particularly for YouTube TV.”
YouTube TV last raised its prices in December 2024 to $82.99 a month, double what it was five years ago. It originally launched in 2017 at $34.99 a month. The service had 8 million subscribers as of 2024. In February 2025, 11.6% of all TV use in the country was on YouTube, according to Nielsen’s ranking of media distributors.
Disney CEO Bob Iger faces a challenge from YouTube.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Looking at YouTube’s Impressive Trajectory
Nathanson says he foresees a trajectory for YouTube that is well worth watching.
“As a result, we forecast YouTube’s total revenue growth to settle in the low- to mid-double-digit range from 2025 through 2027,” he said. “This trajectory – and the potential to inflect the trend upward – underscores why we explore YouTube’s monetization dynamics and the untapped opportunities that lie ahead in the sections below. In our view, the opportunity is ripe for the taking.”
Related: YouTube TV subscribers might be losing popular channels
Nathanson had similar thoughts on YouTube in a March 31 note, saying, “YouTube has substantial runway for further growth — not just in monetization but also in expanding into new business segments, such as becoming the premier streaming aggregator.”
The prediction comes right as YouTube celebrates its 20th anniversary, presenting quite the gift to commemorate the occasion. By 2024, YouTube (GOOGL) had successfully climbed to the spot of second-largest media company with a revenue of $54.2 billion.
Perhaps most surprising is that a big chunk of that revenue comes from its ads. In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, YouTube made $10.473 billion from advertising, the first time the streaming platform has broken the $10 billion mark in a quarter strictly from ads.
Despite people being quite vocal about hating ads, they’re clearly still watching them anyway.
Oh, and one more unexpected tidbit worth mentioning: More and more people over age 65 are also tuning into YouTube. Nielsen also reports that the demographic has nearly doubled over the last two years, now on par with kids ages 2-11. It says a lot about how even older generations are finding new ways to tune in.
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