Goldman Sachs just doubled down on its bull case for U.S. stocks.
According to Seeking Alpha reporting, the bank reiterated its base case call for the S&P 500 to reach 7,600 (13.5% above current levels) by the end of 2026, backed by ongoing earnings momentum and an economy that’s still expanding.
The bank’s strategists expect the index’s earnings to surge to about $309 per share in 2026 and $342 in 2027, implying roughly 12% and 10%, respectively.
For context, Goldman first flagged the 7,600 target in its January market outlook.
At the time of writing on March 17, 2026, the S&P 500 traded at 6,697.99, down 2.2% year- to-date, according to Yahoo Finance.
So clearly, it hasn’t been all guns blazing like it was over the past two to three years, when the AI-led stock market frenzy pushed the index to record highs.
For some perspective, the S&P 500’s spearhead in Nvidia jumped 171% in 2024 and accounted for over a fifth of the S&P 500’s overall gain.
However, as of March 16, 2026, Nvidia traded at $183.22, down roughly 1.8% year-to-date from its Dec. 31, 2025, close of $186.50, according to Yahoo Finance.
A myriad of headwinds, including elevated oil prices, stickier inflation, delayed hopes of Fed cuts, and weaker market breadth, have effectively offset the lion’s share of the index’s bullish momentum.
Hence, given the setup at this point, there are plenty of reasons for investors to be cautious.
For starters, the S&P 500 is currently trading at nearly 21 times forward earnings, while market leadership remains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap giants spending billions on AI-driven capex.
Goldman Sachs acknowledges that the 10 biggest companies account for nearly 39% of the index’s market value and nearly 31% of earnings.
In fact, according to reporting from Seeking Alpha, veteran analyst Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management said that the weighting could climb even higher, reaching 50%.
“The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much diversification anymore,” Slok said.
Here’s the top 10 companies by weighting on the S&P 500:
- Nvidia: 7.31% weighting.
- Apple: 6.63% weighting.
- Microsoft: 4.96% weighting.
- Amazon: 3.47% weighting.
- Alphabet Class A: 3.08% weighting.
- Broadcom: 2.56% weighting.
- Alphabet Class C: 2.46% weighting.
- Meta Platforms: 2.40% weighting.
- Tesla: 1.92% weighting.
- Berkshire Hathaway: 1.57% weighting.
Source: Seeking Alpha
Nevertheless, the bank’s thesis is mostly straightforward.
If corporate profits continue expanding, and the economy sidesteps a major slowdown, stocks still have room to climb.
The S&P 500’s year-end climb (2020–2025)
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- 2020: 3,756.31 (+16.26% YoY).
- 2021: 4,766.20 (+26.89% YoY).
- 2022: 3,839.50 (-19.44% YoY).
- 2023: 4,769.83 (+24.23% YoY).
- 2024: 5,881.63 (+23.31% YoY).
- 2025: 6,845.50 (+16.39% YoY).
Source: StatMuse.
Goldman’s bullish S&P 500 case rests on three key pillars
Goldman Sachs’ latest note on the stock market is based on the idea that it can continue to climb despite appearing expensive on the surface.
Key numbers behind Goldman’s outlook
- S&P 500 target: 7,600 by end-2026, implying about 14% upside.
- Earnings outlook: $309 EPS in 2026, rising to $342 in 2027.
- Profit growth: Earnings expected to grow 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.
- Tech contribution: Sector earnings are seen rising from $70/share (2025) to $109 (2027).
- Macro backdrop:GDP growth 2.3% (2026), 2.0% (2027); 10-year yield 4.1%.
- Energy performance: Crude oil up 70% YTD, energy stocks +30%.
That forecast rests on a handful of assumptions about the economy, corporate profits, and market leadership over the next couple of years.
- Earnings remain the primary engine. The bank’s primary thesis hinges on bottom-line numbers expanding at a healthy pace, despite the tightness in financial conditions.
- Technology drives the next leg of expansion. Goldman expects the tech industry’s earnings contribution to jump from nearly $70 per share in 2025 to $92 in 2026 and $109 by 2027, pointing to the broader market’s reliance on the Magnificent Seven and others.
- Valuations stay elevated but stable. The S&P 500 trades at around 21 times forward earnings, above its 10-year average of about 18.9x, but the bank argues the multiple can remain stable if economic growth remains steady.
Put simply, Goldman doesn’t believe stocks are cheap, but it’s betting that earnings growth will remain robust enough to justify today’s valuation.
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S&P 500 earnings have surged since the pandemic-era slump
- 2020: $140.23.
- 2021: $208.23.
- 2022: $219.17.
- 2023: $220.21.
- 2024: $243.02.
- 2025: $271.23.
Source: FactSet.
Goldman sees S&P 500 hitting 7,600 but warns downside could reach 5,400
Goldman Sachs is sticking with its base case of U.S. stocks, but also outlined a bear case scenario on the back of recent geopolitical shocks.
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According to Reuters, the bank pointed to recent disruptions to global oil supplies linked to the Middle East conflict, driving the index down to 5,400 this year and more than 15% below recent levels.
In a relatively milder scenario, the bank estimates the S&P 500 could fall to around 6,300, about 5% lower.
Goldman’s bear case boils down to three pertinent forces shaping the market from here:
- Oil shock and geopolitical escalation. Serious supply disruptions may trigger an inflation spike while dragging the S&P 500 toward 5,400.
- Slower economic growth. A relative slowdown could still potentially knock the index down to nearly 6,300, even if the broader economy is able to side-step a recession.
- Valuation compression. Goldman warns that uncertainty around AI and geopolitics will further pressure multiples. Under these troubling scenarios, the S&P 500’s forward valuation may tank to 19 times earnings or even 16 times in a rough oil-shock environment.
So clearly, the path to 7,600 is far from smooth, especially if energy markets, geopolitics, and investor confidence turn the other way.
Wall Street price targets for the S&P 500
- Morgan Stanley: 7,800.
- Citi: 7,700.
- JPMorgan: 7,500.
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: 7,500.
- Barclays: 7,400.
Source: Reuters.
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