Baby steps are still steps, slow progress is still progress. Watching Boeing’s recovery has required a particular kind of patience. One that tolerates setbacks, accepts slow progress, and resists the urge to declare victory too early.
Bank of America (BofA) Securities analyst Ronald Epstein has that kind of patience. And on May 1, he made clear he hasn’t lost it.
Epstein reiterated his Buy rating on Boeing (BA) with a $270 price target, according to TipRanks data, a call that implies meaningful upside from the stock’s May 1 close of $227.38. The 5-star analyst, who ranks 211 out of 12,160 on TipRanks with a 61.5% success rate and 19.3% average return per rating, didn’t oversell the story. His language was deliberate: Boeing is taking “baby steps in the right direction,” and the turnaround remains incomplete. Progress, he cautioned, may not be linear.
That measured framing is precisely why investors are paying attention. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg struck a similar tone after the BA’s first-quarter results.
“We’re building on our momentum with a strong start to the year and growing record-breaking backlog across our business,” Ortberg said confidently, but not triumphantly.
BofA sees Boeing’s three divisions pointing toward recovery
Epstein’s $270 price target is built on a three-segment view of Boeing’s recovery trajectory, each moving at a different pace and carrying a different risk profile.
Boeing Global Services is the anchor. Epstein describes it as the company’s most reliable earnings engine. Steadily growing, margin-accretive, and providing the stable base that allows the rest of the business to absorb the turbulence of a production recovery. Operating margins at Global Services exceeded 18% in the first quarter following the divestiture of Digital Aviation Solutions, according to Boeing’s Q1 2026 earnings data.
Boeing Defense and Space is the medium-term catalyst. Epstein sees the segment benefiting from long-term demand for munitions replenishment and from supported programs. That includes the F-47, KC-46, and F-15EX, all of which appear in the U.S. fiscal year 2027 President’s Budget Request.
Related: Boeing stock price resets after earnings
Defense, Space, and Security reported first-quarter revenue of $7.6 billion with a 3.1% operating margin, reflecting higher volume and stabilizing operational performance, according to the earnings release. Defense backlog grew to a record $86 billion, with 27% of orders from international customers.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes is where the biggest upside lives, and where execution risk remains highest. A wiring issue delayed approximately 25 MAX deliveries in the first quarter, but Epstein expects those aircraft to be delivered in the second quarter, TipRanks reported.
He also forecasts 508 total MAX deliveries in 2026, slightly above Boeing’s own guidance. The 737 program is currently producing at 42 aircraft per month with plans to reach 47 per month by summer 2026. The 787 program has stabilized at eight per month, according to the earnings release.
Boeing’s Q1 2026 results and record backlog give the bull case its foundation
The numbers from Boeing’s Q1 2026 earnings report, released April 22, frame where the company stands in its recovery:
- Revenue of $22.2 billion, up year over year, reflecting 143 commercial deliveries
- GAAP loss per share of ($0.11) and core loss per share (non-GAAP) of $0.20
- Operating cash flow of negative $0.2 billion and free cash flow of (non-GAAP) $1.5 billion
- Total company backlog of a record $695 billion, including over 6,100 commercial airplanes
Source: Boeing First Quarter Results
The cash flow picture remains the most important variable to watch. As Seeking Alpha reports, Boeing maintained guidance to generate $1 billion to $3 billion in free cash flow for full-year 2026.
Epstein’s own estimate sits at approximately $2.55 billion, a meaningful improvement from recent quarters and the clearest financial signal that the recovery is progressing.
Related: UBS revisits Boeing stock forecast after earnings
Fresh demand signals are also arriving. According to Boeing, EgyptAir took delivery of its first Boeing 737 MAX, a 737-8, the first of 18 aircraft leased from SMBC Aviation Capital, marking the first 737 MAX to enter service in Egypt.
“The delivery of our first Boeing 737 MAX marks a significant milestone in our fleet modernization strategy. By integrating the 737-8 into our operations, EgyptAir Holding is committed to providing our passengers with a superior travel experience while achieving greater operational efficiency,” said Captain Ahmed Adel, chairman and CEO of EgyptAir Holding Company.
What BofA’s Boeing call means for investors waiting on the full recovery
Boeing’s stock performance tells the story of a company that has come a long way, and still has further to go:
- Year to date: BA up 4.73% vs. the S&P 500 5.62% gain
- One year: BA 24.33% up vs. the S&P 500 29.01% surge
- Three years: BA gained 11.53% vs. the S&P 500 73.47% surge
- Five years: BA dropped 2.96% vs. the S&P 500 72.92% gain
Source: Yahoo Finance
The multi-year underperformance reflects the accumulation of damage from the MAX crisis, the pandemic, manufacturing quality issues, and a strike that stalled production.
Epstein’s argument isn’t that those chapters are forgotten. It’s that the next chapter is being written more carefully, and that a $695 billion backlog, stabilizing production rates, and a Global Services engine generating consistent cash flow make the risk/reward compelling at current levels.
Wall Street‘s consensus 12-month price target of $274.57, according to TipRanks, implies the broader analyst community shares that view. Baby steps, as Epstein put it, but they’re heading somewhere.
