The richest man in the world is working to find an end strategy to this conflict, which has been going on since February.
Elon Musk is not giving up.
The richest man in the world may be the subject of criticism to take care of his businesses and leave geopolitics to politicians and career diplomats.
In recent days, the CEO of Tesla (TSLA) – Get Tesla Inc. Report is looking for the best option that would end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has been going on since February 24, when the former invaded the latter.
He made rookie mistakes.
Musk, who has promised to transform civilization as we know it today, had proposed a highly controversial peace plan. The Ukrainians saw it as a proposal to capitulate, when the tech tycoon thought he was doing the right thing by being realistic.
The peace plan in question asked the Ukrainians to cede their region of Crimea to Russia, annexed by the Russians in 2014. Ukraine also had to renounce becoming a member of NATO and the European Union, two organizations which Russian President Vladimir Putin considers threats to his country’s sovereignty.
Musk Stumbles
This peace plan gave the impression that Musk was pro-Russian, as it mirrored Russian demands.
Musk appeared to be taken aback by the heavy criticism his initiative was met with. He seemed surprised that the Ukrainians, whom he supported from the beginning of the conflict in words and actions, turned against him.
After two stormy days, he found his footing. He managed to quell a controversy he and his aerospace company SpaceX sparked by threatening to cut off Ukraine’s Starlink, a secure satellite internet service, if the US government did not provide some funding.
SpaceX loses $20 million per month related to Starlink in Ukraine, said Musk, who justified the losses on the fact that the company was forced to allocate additional resources to the service in the face of Russian cyberattacks.
Starlink has indeed become the only communication system of the Ukrainian armed forces on the front, because Russia has destroyed most of the communication infrastructure.
If Musk’s logic holds true, the problem is that he picked the wrong time. Ukraine is recording victories in several regions against the Russians.
The billionaire, however, managed to correct the situation by withdrawing his request to the Pentagon and by committing to continue to provide Starlink free of charge to the Ukraine. He thus returned to the good graces of the Ukrainians.
Compromise
But where many people would have given up after heavy criticism, Musk perseveres. He searches and searches for a solution.
The billionaire seems to have considered every option and potential outcome. He came to the conclusion that there is no better solution than compromise. Basically, Russia and Ukraine must each agree to make sacrifices to prevent the conflict from escalating.
Musk is convinced there is no other end strategy.
This is what he just announced on Twitter. It all started with a post from tech investor David Sacks, who is also a friend of his.
“3 most likely outcomes of Ukraine War,” Sacks posted on October 20. “1. Forever War – Russian mobilization reestablishes stalemate. 2. Nuclear War – Ukrainian counter-offensive keeps winning; Russia uses nukes to defend Crimea. 3. Compromise – US tells Ukraine it can’t have Crimea back.Take your pick.”
Musk seems to agree with this reasoning.
“Exactly,” he said.
He then explained that, unfortunately, the two parties had, for the moment, made choice number 1 which could then lead to choice number 2.
“Most probable outcome by far is a horrible war of attrition that destroys Ukraine & severely damages Russia, with massive body count on both sides. And, in the end, the same outcome. So why?”
If he intends to suggest his choice, the tech mogul does not say so explicitly. He seems to have learned the lesson of his first peace plan. Musk the realist, has become somewhat cautious.
But one of his fans then pushed him to make a clear choice.
“Elon, which option are you inclined towards (which could potentially result into de-escalating this war situation)? Option # 3? Compromise?”, the Twitter user asked him.
“Compromise is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome,” the billionaire responded. “Just a question of how much death & destruction happens before then.”
Basically, Ukraine must agree to cede part of its territory to achieve peace. Peace has its price, Musk seems to say.
“What about the Donbas region? Where is the line in your view? Just curious,” another Twitter user pointed out to him.
“That should be the nature of the debate,” the billionaire said.
