If you’ve been hoping to buy a home in 2026, you’ve probably been watching mortgage rates increase recently.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.71% on Sept. 3, according to Freddie Mac — the first time since July 25 that the rate topped 6.7%.
Mortgage News Daily (MND), another trustworthy source for tracking national mortgage rates, put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.89% on Friday, Sept. 4. As of Tuesday, Sept. 8, the rate hadn’t budged. MND’s rates tend to be a little higher than Freddie Mac’s because MND includes standard up-front costs, such as discount points and lender fees, in its data collection.
Less than a week earlier, on Sept. 2, the MND rate hit 6.91%, its highest point since June 2025.
Many had hoped mortgage rates would fall and hold at below 6% in 2026. Instead, the question has become whether rates will climb to 7%.
The answer: It depends. A 7% national average and a 7% individual mortgage rate are two different things.
Average mortgage rates should stay under 7%
Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, told TheStreet he would be surprised if the national average mortgage rate hit 7% in the near future.
Why? Because some of the factors that could push mortgage rates that high have already been reflected in the market.
“With the robust jobs number from [Friday, Sept. 4] along with oil’s being over $90 per barrel and the economy bursting ahead, it seems as if the FOMC will hike rates by 0.25% this month,” Burr said.
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At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool estimates a 60.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will increase the federal funds rate at its meeting on Sept. 15-16.
That expectation is likely one reason that mortgage rates have been climbing.
Mortgage rates typically rise two or three weeks before a Fed rate hike, not after. Mortgage rates are mainly driven by longer-term bond yields and market expectations, rather than directly tracking the federal funds rate.
So, a mortgage rate increase to 7% is unlikely — but not impossible.
However, mortgage rates could also tick down after the September Fed meeting.
“If the market prices in the [federal funds rate hike] ahead of time and the Fed presents it as a measured step to bring inflation back to 2%, investors could view it as positive for longer-term bonds,” loanDepot Chief Investment Officer and Head Economist Jeff DerGurahian said in a statement shared with TheStreet.
“And if that message lands, longer-term Treasury yields could hold steady or move lower, allowing 30-year mortgage rates to do the same,” DerGurahian continued. “It’s essentially the Fed tapping the brakes now to keep inflation from gaining speed later.”
Individual mortgage rates could easily surpass 7%
The national average 30-year mortgage rate may not reach 7% in 2026. But remember, that’s just the average. Individual homebuyers’ rates rely on various factors, including where you live and your financial profile.
“Bottom line, while the daily index rose into the 6.9’s today for the first time in more than [one] year, many borrowers are already seeing rates at 7% or higher,” Chief Operating Officer Matthew Graham wrote for MND on Sept. 2.
For example, if you have a high credit score and plenty of cash reserves, your mortgage rate might stay in the 6% range.
But if you live in a competitive housing market, have a poor credit score, and have little in your bank account, the lender may charge you a 7% mortgage rate or higher.
If you want to lock in a lower mortgage rate, work on factors such as boosting your credit score and paying down debt to make your application more appealing to lenders. You should also speak with a mortgage loan officer to discuss your options for getting a better rate.
Related: 3 tips for getting the lowest mortgage rate in today’s market
